Gold

Gold Prices and the U.S. Economy
ကမာၻ႕ေရႊေစ်းသည္ အေမရိကန္ စီးပြါးေရးအေျခအေနမွန္ကို ထုတ္ေဖၚျပသႏိုင္စြမ္း ရွိသည္။ ႏိုင္ငံ စီးပြါးေရး က်ဆင္းေနလ်င္ လက္ရွိ ကမာၻ႕ေရႊေစ်း ျမင့္တက္ေနတတ္ျခင္းမွာ ရင္းႏွီးျမွပ္ႏွံသူေတြက စီးပြါးေရး အၾကပ္အတည္းမ်ားႏွင့္ ေငြေဖါင္းပြျခင္းတို႕မွ အကာအကြယ္ျပဳရန္ ေရႊ ကို ၀ယ္ယူစုေဆာင္း ၾကျခင္းေၾကာင့္ ျဖစ္သည္။ စီးပြါးေရး အားေကာင္းေနလ်င္ ေရႊေစ်း က်ဆင္းေနရျခင္းမွာ အျခားအက်ဳိးအျမတ္ ရႏုိင္ေသာ စေတာ့ ၊ ဘြန္း ႏွင့္ အိမ္ျခံေျမ မ်ားဘက္သို႕ ေျပာင္းလဲ ရင္းႏွီး ျမႈပ္ႏွံ ၾကျခင္းတို႕ေၾကင့္ ျဖစ္ပါသည္။

ေရႊ၏ ၀ယ္လိုအား ႏွင့္ ေရာင္းလိုအားမ်ားကလည္း ေရႊေစ်းအေပၚ သက္ေရာက္မႈ အလြန္မ်ားေနတတ္ ေသးသည္။ အေၾကာင္းမွာ ေရႊကို စုေဆာင္းထားေသာပမာဏ သည္ ႏွစ္စဥ္ ေရႊသတၳဳကို တူးေဖၚ ထုတ္လုပ္ႏိုင္မႈ၏ အဆ (၆၀) ခန္႕မ်ားျပားေနျခင္းေၾကာင့္ ျဖစ္သည္။ ဆိုရလ်င္ ေရႊမိုင္းတြင္းမ်ားသည္ ေရာင္းလိုအား တိုးပြားလာရန္ လိုအပ္ေသာ ပမာဏကို မထုတ္လုပ္ႏိုင္ပဲ အနည္းငယ္သာ ထုတ္လုပ္ ေနသည္ကို သတိထားၾကည့္သင့္ပါသည္။ ေရႊ၏ ေရာင္းအား ၂၆% သည္ ထုတ္လုပ္ၿပီးသားေရႊကို ျပန္လည္ ထုတ္ေရာင္းျခင္းျဖစ္ၿပီး ေရႊေစ်းတက္သည့္ အခါ ဤသို႕ ျပဳၾကသည္။ ၁၀% မွာ လွ်ပ္စစ္ ပစၥည္းထုတ္လုပ္ျခင္းမ်ားအတြက္ စက္မႈလုပ္ငန္းမ်ားသို႕ ေရာင္းခ်ျခင္း ျဖစ္သည္။ က်န္ေသာပမာဏ မွာ လက္၀တ္ရတနာမ်ား ၊ ဒဂၤါးျပားမ်ား ႏွင့္ ဗဟိုဘဏ္မ်ားသို႕ စီးဆင္းၾကသည္။

ယေန႕ကမာၻ႕ေရႊေစ်းသည္ ကုန္စည္ေရာင္း၀ယ္သူမ်ား၏ ယံုၾကည္မႈကို ထင္ဟပ္ေစသည္။ ကုန္သည္မ်ားသည္ စီးပြါးေရးက်ဆင္းမည္ဟု ထင္သည့္အခါ ေရႊကို ပိုမို၀ယ္ယူၾကၿပီး ၊ စီးပြါးေရး အားေကာင္းခ်ိန္တြင္ အနည္းငယ္သာ ၀ယ္ယူတတ္ၾကသည္။ စီးပြါးေရး အေျခအေနကိုၾကည့္၍ ဘာကိုရင္းႏွီးျမႈပ္ႏွံရမလဲဆိုတာကို ေရႊေစ်းႏံႈးက ေဖၚျပေပးေနတတ္သည္။ ၿပီးခဲ့သည့္ ႏွစ္၏ ကမာၻ႕ေရးရာမ်ားတြင္ ေရႊေစ်း အေပၚ သူတို႕ ဘယ္လို အသံုးခ်သြားသလဲ ဆိုတာကို ျပန္လည္ ေလ့လာၾကည့္ၾကမည္။

ဥေရာပ သမဂၢမွ ျဗိတိန္ခဲြထြက္ေရး (Brexit) မဲရလဒ္ အားေကာင္းခဲ့ၿပီးေနာက္ ၆ နာရီအတြင္း ကမာၻ႕ေရႊေစ်း တစ္ေအာင္စလ်င္ ေဒၚလာ တစ္ရာ ($100) ခန္႕ ခုန္တက္သြားခဲ့သည္။ ဇြန္လ ၂၃ ရက္ ညေန၄ နာရီ (London session) တြင္ $1254.96 မွ $1347.12 သို႕ ညလယ္ (New York session) တြင္ေရာက္ရွိသြားခဲ့သည္။ ယူရို ႏွင့္ စတာလင္ေပါင္ တို႕တန္ဖိုးက်ဆင္းမႈမွု ကာကြယ္ရန္အတြက္ ရင္းႏွီးျမႈပ္ႏွံသူမ်ားက ေရႊ ကို အလုအယက္ ၀ယ္ယူလိုက္ျခင္းတို႕ေၾကာင့္ျဖစ္သည္။

၂၀၁၅ ႏွစ္ကုန္ပိုင္းတြင္ ကမာၻ႕ေရႊေစ်း တစ္ေအာင္စလ်င္ $1061 သို႕ ျပဳတ္က်သည္။ ၂၀၁၄ ခုႏွစ္ ေနာက္ပိုင္း ေဒၚလာတန္ဖိုးမွာ ၂၄% ခန္႕ျပန္လည္ အားေကာင္းလာျခင္းတို႕ေၾကာင့္ ျဖစ္သည္။ တစ္ေအာင္စလ်င္ ေဒၚလာ တစ္ေထာင္ ($1000) ေအာက္ေရာက္ရွိခဲ့ေသာ ယခင္ေစ်းတန္းသို႕ ျပန္သြားမည့္ သေဘာပင္ျပလိုက္ေသးသည္။ သို႕ေသာ္ အတိုးႏံႈးတက္သည့္တိုင္ ေရႊေစ်းမွာ ေဒၚလာ တစ္ေထာင္ေအာက္သို႕ မေရာက္ရွိခဲ့ပါ။

၂၀၁၆ တြင္ စေတာ့ေစ်းကြက္မွာ market correction လုပ္ရန္ ျပန္လည္အားယူျပင္ဆင္ခဲ့သည္။ စေတာ့တို႕၏ ေရွ႕ေဆာင္ သုိးထီး (Bellwether stock) စေတာ့မ်ားေပါင္းစပ္ထားေသာ အညႊန္းကိန္း Dow Jones 30 မွာ က်ဆင္း၍ ေရႊေစ်း တက္ခဲ့သည္။
ကမာၻ႕ေရႊေစ်း သမိုင္းတစ္ေလွ်ာက္ အျမင့္ဆံုးစံခ်ိန္ျဖင့္ တက္ခဲ့ေသာ ၂၀၁၁ ခုႏွစ္ စက္တင္ဘာ ၅ ရက္ တြင္ တစ္ေအာင္စလ်င္ $1895 ျဖင့္ သမိုင္း၀င္ခဲ့သည္။ အလုပ္အကိုင္အားနည္းမႈ ၊ ဥေရာပေၾကြးျမီျပသနာမ်ား ၊ အေမရိကန္ ေငြေခ်းစာခ်ဳပ္မ်ား၏ မရမရာျဖစ္မႈမ်ား ရွည္ၾကာလာျခင္း (U.S debt ceiling crisis) မ်ားသည္ ကမာၻ႕ေရႊေစ်းကို အထြတ္အထိပ္သို႕ တြန္းပိုက္လိုက္သည္။ ၂၀၀၉ ခုႏွစ္ တြင္ျဖစ္ခဲ့ေသာ တစ္ေအာင္စေဒၚလာ တစ္ေထာင္မွ ၁ ႏွစ္ခဲြ ၂ ႏွစ္အတြင္း ၂ဆ နီးပါးခန္႕ တက္သြားခဲ့ျခင္း ျဖစ္သည္။

ဇူလိုင္လတြင္ အေမရိကန္ ကြန္ဂရက္မွ ေၾကြးျမီမ်ား ျမင့္တက္ေနမႈကို ေျဖရွင္းေတာ့မည္ ျဖစ္သျဖင့္ ေရႊကို ရင္းႏွီးျမႈပ္ႏွံသူမ်ား စိုးရိမ္ခဲ့ၾကသည္။ ဖယ္ဒရယ္ အစိုးရသည္ ေနာက္ထပ္ ေငြေခ်းစာခ်ဳပ္ အသစ္မ်ား ထပ္မံမေရာင္းခ်ေတာ့ပဲ ၎တို႕၏ ေၾကြးျမီမ်ားကို တာ၀န္ယူမႈ ရွိလာခဲ့သည္။
ေမလတြင္ ေရႊ ၊ ေငြ ၊ ေၾကးနီ ႏွင့္ ေရနံေစ်းႏံႈးမ်ား တဟုန္ထုိးက်ဆင္းလာသည္။ ေစ်းကြက္ကြ်မ္းက်င္သူ ဘီလွ်ံနာၾကီး ေဂ်ာ့ဆိုးေရာ့ (George Soros) မွ လက္၀ယ္ကိုင္ထားမႈမ်ားကို စတင္ေလွ်ာ့ခ်လာသည္။ (Silver) ေငြေစ်းမွာ တစ္ေအာင္စလ်င္ $48.58 မွ တစ္ရက္အတြင္း (39.38) ျဖင့္ 7.9% က်ဆင္းၿပီး ႏွစ္ ၃၀ အတြင္း အၾကီးမားဆံုးက်ဆင္းမႈၾကီး ျဖစ္ခဲ့သည္။ (Gold) ေရႊ သည္ တစ္ေအာင္စလ်င္ $1556.70 သို႕ေရာက္ရွိၿပီးမွ ၂ ရက္အတြင္း $1514.90 သုိ႕က်ဆင္းခဲ့သည္။
ေရနံတစ္စည္လ်င္ $109.24 (1.81%) က်ဆင္းၿပီး ေၾကးနီ (copper) မွာ တစ္ေပါင္လ်င္ $4.12 သို႕ အသီးသီးက်ဆင္းခဲ့ၾကသည္။

ဧၿပီလတြင္ FED နာယက Ben Bernanke ၏ သတင္းစာရွင္းလင္းပဲြေၾကာင့္ ေရႊေစ်း အတက္ျပခဲ့သည္။ FED မွ (QE2) ေခၚ ေစ်းကြက္အတြင္း လွည့္လည္ေငြေၾကးတိုးပြါးဖို႕ တနည္းေျပာရရင္ ေငြစကၠဴေတြတိုးပြါးဖို႕ ၂ ႏွစ္စီမံကိန္းကို အဆံုးသတ္ေတာ့မွာလို႕ ဇြန္လမွာ ေၾကျငာခဲ့တာပါ။ အေမရိကန္ ဗဟိုဘဏ္ (FED) မွ အေမရိကန္ေဒၚလာ သန္း ၆၀၀ တန္ေၾကးရွိတဲ့ အစိုးရရဲ႕ ေငြေခ်းစာခ်ဳပ္ မ်ားျဖစ္သည့္ U.S. Treasuries မ်ားကို ၀ယ္ယူကာ အတိုးႏံႈး ကာလအတန္ၾကာ နိမ့္က်ေနမႈကို ထိန္းထားေပးခဲ့သည္။ သုိ႕ေသာ္ QE2 အဆံုးသတ္ေတာ့မည္ဟု ေၾကျငာခဲ့ေသာ္လည္း ေရႊေစ်းမွာ တစ္ေအာင္စလ်င္ $1520.29 သို႕ပင္ ၂၀၁၁ ခုႏွစ္ ဧၿပီလ ၄ ရက္ေန႕တြင္ စံခ်ိန္သစ္ျဖင့္ တက္သြားခဲ့သည္။ ေရႊရင္းႏွီးျမႈပ္ႏွံသူမ်ားမွာ ေငြေဖါင္းပြျခင္းႏွင့္ ရင္ဆိုင္ေနရဆဲေၾကာင့္ ျဖစ္သည္။

ေရနံေစ်းႏံႈးျမင့္တက္မႈမ်ားေၾကာင့္ ေဒၚလာ၏ ၀ယ္ႏိုင္စြမ္းအားကို ထိခုိက္မႈ ရွိလာၿပီး (inflation) ေငြေဖါင္းပြျခင္းျဖစ္ေနျခင္းမွာ ယာယီသာျဖစ္ေၾကာင္း Bernanke မွ ရွင္းလင္းေျပာၾကားခဲ့သည္။ ထို႕ေၾကာင့္ FED အေနျဖင့္ ၂၀၁၁ ခုႏွစ္အတြင္း အတိုးႏံႈးျမင့္တင္မႈ ရွိလာႏိုင္ေၾကာင္း ရင္းႏွီးျမႈပ္ႏွံသူမ်ားမွလည္း စဥ္းစားလာၾကသည္။
၂၀၁၀ စက္တင္ဘာတြင္ ကမာၻ႕ေရႊေစ်း တစ္ေအာင္စလ်င္ $1274.75 သို႕က်ဆင္းခဲ့သည္။ ေစ်းကြက္ ဂုရုၾကီး ေဂ်ာ့ဆိုးေရာ့ မွ ေရႊ သည္ ေနာက္ဆံုးပူေဖါင္းၾကီး ျဖစ္လာၿပီဟု ေၾကျငာလိုက္ၿပီးေနာက္ ခိုင္မာသည့္ ရင္းႏွီးျမႈပ္ႏွံမႈ အျဖစ္မရွိေတာ့ပဲ က်ဆင္းခဲ့ျခင္းျဖစ္သည္။ အဖိုးတန္ သတဳၳေစ်းကြက္ သုေတသီ တစ္ဦးကမႈ ေရႊေစ်းမွာ တစ္ေအာင္စလ်င္ $1300 သုိ႕ ထိုးတက္သြားလိမ့္မည္ဟု ခန္႕မွန္းခဲ့သည္။ သူတို႕ႏွစ္ဦး ဘယ္သူမွန္ခဲ့ပါသလဲ ???

၂၀၁၀ ဇြန္လတြင္ ရင္းႏွီးျမႈပ္ႏွံရွင္မ်ားႏွင့္ ဘဏ္မ်ားသည္ ယူရို ၊ေဒၚလာ ၊ ႏွင့္ အျခား ရင္းႏွီးျမႈပ္ႏွံမႈမ်ားကို ေရႊဘက္သို႕ ေျပာင္းလဲခဲ့သည္။ ဥေရာပေၾကြးျမီ ျပသနာမ်ားအတြက္ ရတက္မေအးရျခင္းႏွင့္ ေငြေၾကးေစ်းကြက္တြင္ U.S. debt မ်ားတိုးပြားလာေနၿပီး ေစ်းကြက္လႈပ္ခတ္မႈ မ်ားလာေနျခင္းမ်ားေၾကာင့္လည္း ျဖစ္သည္။ လူေတာ္ေတာ္မ်ားသည္ ေရႊ၀ယ္ယူရန္ အခ်ိန္ေကာင္းဟု ယံုၾကည္ခဲ့ၾကသည္။ ယခုအခ်ိန္ေရႊကို ၀ယ္ယူျခင္းသည္ ၁၅ လၾကာျမင့္သည့္အခ်ိန္တြင္ ရင္းႏွီးျမႈပ္ႏွံမႈ၏ ၅၃% ျပန္ရႏိုင္သည္ဟုလည္း တြက္ခ်က္ခဲ့ၾကသည္။ ဘာေၾကာင့္ ဒီလိုအခ်ိန္မွာ ေရႊကို၀ယ္ယူဖို႕ အၾကံေတြ ျဖစ္ၾကရတာပါလဲ….အတိတ္ကိုျပန္ၾကည့္ရေအာင္…

၂၀၀၉ ခုႏွစ္ ႏို၀င္ဘာတြင္ ကမာၻ႕ေရႊေစ်းသည္ တစ္ေအာင္စလ်င္ $1081 သို႕ေရာက္ရွိခဲ့သည္။ ဤအခ်ိန္က အိႏိၵယသည္ ေရႊမက္ထရစ္တန္ခ်ိန္ ၂၀၀ ကို၀ယ္ယူလိုက္သည္ဟု IMF မွ ေၾကျငာခဲ့ျခင္းေၾကာင့္ ရင္းႏွီးျမႈပ္ႏွံသူမ်ား အတြက္ စိတ္၀င္စားစရာျဖစ္ခဲ့သည္။ ေရႊအလြန္အမင္း ၀ယ္ယူသူ ေရႊၾကမ္းပိုးမ်ားက ကမာၻ႕ဗဟိုဘဏ္မ်ားသည္ ၎တို႕၏ အရံေငြေၾကးအျဖစ္ ေရႊကို စတင္၀ယ္ယူၾကေတာ့မည္ဟု ေတြးခဲ့ၾကသည္။ တစ္ခ်ိန္တည္းမွာပဲ ဘဏ္အမ်ားအျပားသည္ ေဒၚလာကို ေရာင္းခ်၍ ေရႊကို ၀ယ္ယူစုေဆာင္းၾကသျဖင့္ ေဒၚလာတန္ဖိုးက်ဆင္းမႈလည္း ျဖစ္လာ ေတာ့သည္။

၂၀၀၉ စက္တင္ဘာတြင္ တစ္ေအာင္စလ်င္ $1032 သို႕တက္ခဲ့ၿပီး ေဒၚလာက်သြားခဲ့သည္။ ၂၀၀၈ စီးပြားပ်က္ကပ္ကဲ့သို႕ ျဖစ္လာေတာ့မည္ဟု စိုးရိမ္ခဲ့ၾကျပန္သည္။ စီးပြါးေရး ဖြံ႕ျဖိဳးမႈ က်ဆင္းၿပီး recession ကို ျမင္ေယာင္ေနၾကသည္။
၂၀၀၉ ေဖေဖၚ၀ါရီတြင္ တစ္ေအာင္စ ေဒၚလာ တစ္ေထာင္ သို႕ ပထမအၾကိမ္ တက္လွမ္းခဲ့သည္။ အမ်ားစုက ေရႊသည္ အေကာင္းဆံုး ရင္းႏွီးျမႈပ္ႏွံမႈ ျဖစ္သည္ဟု ေျပာခဲ့ၾကသည္။ ရင္းႏွီးျမႈပ္ႏွံမႈ စီမံကိန္း အရ ပိုင္ဆိုင္မႈ၏ ၁၀% ခန္႕သာ ေရႊ ကို ရင္းႏွီးျမပ္ႏွံၾကရန္ အၾကံျပဳၾကသည္။ ေရႊ ကို ၀ယ္ယူသူ မည္သူမဆို ၁ႏွစ္ ၂ ႏွစ္အတြင္း ၈၀% ခန္႕ ျပန္ရလိမ့္မည္ဟု ယံုၾကည္လာၾကသည္။ အေၾကာင္းမွာ စီးပြါးပ်က္ကပ္ (recession) မွာ ေနာင္ႏွစ္ မ်ားတိုင္ေအာင္ ၿပီးဆံုးျခင္း မရွိေသးေသာေၾကာင့္ ျဖစ္သည္။

၁၉၇၆ သမတ နစ္ဆင္လက္ထက္ ေဒၚလာႏွင့္ ေရႊစံခ်ိန္စနစ္ကို ဖ်က္သိမ္းခဲ့ျခင္းသည္ ေရႊေစ်း သမိုင္းတစ္ေလွ်ာက္ အေရးပါဆံုး ျဖစ္ရပ္တစ္ခု ျဖစ္သည္။ ေရႊတစ္ေအာင္စကို အေမရိကန္ေဒၚလာ ၃၅ေဒၚလာျဖင့္ သတ္မွတ္ထားျခင္းျဖစ္သည့္ Gold Standard ကိုဖ်က္သိမ္းၿပီးေနာက္ပိုင္း တစ္ေအာင္စလ်င္ $42 မွ $120 သို႕ခ်က္ခ်င္းတက္သြားခဲ့ပါသည္။ ၁၉၇၁ တြင္ ေရႊကို ေဒၚလာျဖင့္ ျပန္ေရြးေပးေသာစနစ္ကို ရပ္တန္႕ရန္ ဗဟိုဘဏ္သုိ႕ ေျပာၾကားခဲ့သည္။ ႏိုင္ငံျခား ဗဟုိဘဏ္မ်ားသည္ အေမရိကန္ေရႊကို ေဒၚလာျဖင့္ လဲလွယ္ျခင္းမျပဳလုပ္ႏိုင္ေတာ့ေခ်။ နစ္ဆင္အေနျဖင့္ ေရြ ႏွင့္ ႏိႈင္းယွဥ္လ်င္ ေဒၚလာတန္ဖိုးကို ခ်ထားလိုသည္။ ၁၉၇၆ ခုႏွစ္တြင္ သမတနစ္ဆင္မွ ေရႊစံခ်ိန္စနစ္ကို အၿပီးတိုင္ ဖ်က္သိမ္းႏိုင္ခဲ့သည္။ ေရႊေစ်းမွာလည္း တစ္ေအာင္စ ၁၂၀ မွ စတင္ပစ္လႊတ္လိုက္ျခင္း ခံရေတာ့သည္။

၁၉၂၉ ခုႏွစ္တြင္ ေရႊေစ်းမွာ ၂၀.၆၇ ေဒၚလာ မွ ၁၉၃၄ တြင္ ၃၅ ေဒၚလာသို႕ ေရာက္ရွိခဲ့သည္။ ထုိေခတ္ကာလက ဗဟိုဘဏ္သည္ ေရႊစံခ်ိန္စနစ္ကို ထိ္န္းသိမ္းထားၿပီး စီးပြါးေရး ပ်က္ဆီးမႈၾကီကို ကာကြယ္ရန္ျဖစ္သည္။ ၁၉၂၉ တြင္ ကမာၻ႕စီးပြါးပ်က္ကပ္ၾကီးသည္ ၁၀ ႏွစ္တာမွ်ၾကာေအာင္ ျဖစ္ခဲ့ဖူးသည္။
၁၈၄၈ ခုႏွစ္တြင္ Sutter ေခ်ာင္းနံေဘးမွ ေရႊ ကိုစတင္ေတြ႕ရွိခဲ့ၿပီး ကယ္လီဖိုးနီးယားႏွင့္ အေမရိကန္ ေနာက္ပိုင္းေဒသမ်ားပါ ေရြ ကို ပိုမိုစိတ္၀င္စားလာၾကသည္။

၁၈၆၁ ခုႏွစ္တြင္ အေမရိကန္ ဘ႑ာေတာ္တိုက္စိုး Salmon Chase မွ ပထမဆံုး အေမရိကန္ေငြစကၠဴကို ေရႊ ႏွင့္ ေက်ာေထာက္ေနာက္ခံ ျပဳလ်က္ စတင္ထုတ္ေ၀ခဲ့သည္။ ဤအခ်ိန္မွစ၍ ေရႊစံခ်ိန္စနစ္ စတင္ခဲ့ျခင္း ျဖစ္ပါသည္။

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