Technical Analysis မွာ ပါ၀င္ေသာ အခ်ိဳ႕ေသာ major technical analysis tools

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Technical Analysis မွာ ပါ၀င္ေသာ အခ်ိူ႕ေသာ major technical analysis tools ေတြကိုလည္း အေျခခံအားျဖင့္ ေလ့လာလိုက္ၾကရေအာင္..။

Relative Strength Index (RSI):

RSI ဟာ Up-moves ကေန Down-moves ေတြနဲ႔ normalizes ေတြရဲ႕ Ratio ကို တြက္ထုတ္ တိုင္းတာ ထား တာ ျဖစ္ပါတယ္။ သူ႔ရဲ႕ အၫြန္းက ေတာ့ 0-100 range တစ္ခု အေနနဲ႔ ေဖၚျပပါတယ္။ အကယ္၍ RSI ဟာ 70 ႏွင့္ အထက္ မွာ ျပေနၿပီ ဆိုပါက overbought (ေဈးကြက္မွာ ေမွ်ာ္လင့္ထားသည္ထက္ပို၍ ေဈးႏႈံးျမင့္တ က္ေနၿပီ ဆိုတဲ့ အေျခအေန) ျဖစ္ေနတယ္လို႔ယူဆပါတယ္။ အကယ္၍ RSI ဟာ 30 နဲ႔ ေအာက္မွာ ေဖာ္ျပေန တယ္ ဆိုပါက oversold (ေဈးကြက္မွာ ေမွ်ာ္လင့္ထားသည္ထက္ ေအာက္သို႔ ေဈးႏႈံးဟာ ပိုမို က်ဆင္းေနတဲ့ အေျခအေနတစ္ခ)ု ျဖစ္ေနတဲ့signalတစ္ခုလို႔သတ္မွတ္ရမွာပါ။

Stochastic oscillator

ဒီ Indicator ကိုေတာ့ 0-100% scale တစ္ခု အေပၚမွာ overvought/oversold အေျခအေနေတြ ျဖစ္ေပၚလာမႈ ကို ၫြန္ျပရန္ အသုံးျပဳပါတယ္။ ဒီ technical momentum indicator ရဲ႕ တြက္ထုတ္ပုံကို ေတာ့ ေနာက္ သီးျ ခား post တစ္ခု အေနနဲ႔ ေဖာ္ျပပါမယ္။ (ဒီမွာေတာ့ ေယဘုယ် ေဖာ္ျပေပးတာ ျဖစ္ပါတယ္။)
Period closing prices ေတြဟာ သတ္မွတ္ထားတဲ့ ကာလ အပိုင္းအျခားအတြင္း မွာ ပိုျမင့္တဲ့ အစိတ္အပိုင္း မွာ အာ႐ုံစူးစိုက္ေလ့ရွိၾကပါတယ္ ဆိုတဲ့ အခ်က္နဲ႔ strong up trend ေတြ အေပၚမွာ တည္မွီၿပီးေတာ့ ဒီ indicator ကို အေျခခံ တည္ေဆာက္ထားပါတယ္။ ထို႔အတူ အျပန္အလွန္အားျဖင့္ Period closing prices ေ တြဟာ သတ္မွတ္ထားတဲ့ ကာလ အပိုင္းအျခားအတြင္း မွာ ပိုနိမ့္တဲ့ အစိတ္အပိုင္းမွာ အာ႐ုံစူးစိုက္ေလ့ရွိၾကပါ တယ္ဆိုတဲ့ အခ်က္နဲ႔ Strong downtrend ေတြအေပၚမွာ တည္မွီၿပီးေတာ့ လည္း ဒီ indicator ကို အေျခခံ တည္ေဆာက္ထားပါေသးတယ္။ နားေတြ မ်က္ေစ့ေတြ လည္သြားေလာက္ပါၿပီး အလြယ္ေျပာရမယ္ဆိုရင္ ဒီ indicator ဟာ Storng trend ေတြရဲ႕ ေနာက္ဆုံးအေျခအေနကို တြက္ထုတ္ေပးတဲ့ သေဘာပါပဲ။ Stochastic calculations ေတြဟာ လိုင္း ႏွစ္လိုင္း ထုတ္လုပ္ပါတယ္။
%K နဲ႔ %D ပါ။ သူတို႔ဟာ chart ရဲ႕ overbought/oversold areas ေတြကို ၫြန္ျပပါတယ္။ Stochastic lines ေတြအၾကား ျခားနားခ်က္နဲ႔ underlying instrument ေတြရဲ႕ price action ေတြဟာ powerful Trading signal တစ္ခုကို ေပးပါတယ္။

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

ဒီ indicator ကေတာ့ momentum lines ႏွစ္လိုင္း ပါဝင္ပတ္သက္ေနပါတယ္။ MACD line ဟာ moving averages ကို ႏွစ္ဆ ေျမႇာက္ထားတဲ့ လိုင္းႏွစ္လိုင္းရဲ႕ ျခားနားမႈပါပဲ။ exponential moving averages of the difference ျဖစ္ၿပီး signal or trigger line နဲ႔ ျပပါတယ္။ အကယ္၍ MACD နဲ႔ Trigger lines ေတြ cross ျဖစ္ခဲ့လို႔ ရွိရင္ ဒါကို Trend direction ေျပာင္းလဲ မႈ တစ္ခု အတြက္ ျပတဲ့ signal တစ္ခု ကဲ့သို႔ ယူႏိုင္ ပါတယ္။

Fibonacci 

Fibonacci number ဆိုတာကေတာ့ number sequence တစ္ခုပဲ ျဖစ္ပါတယ္။ (1,1,3,5,8,13,21,34,….) ဒါ ကို ဘယ္လို တည္ေဆာက္ထားသလဲ ဆိုေတာ့ ပထမ+ဒုတိယ=တတိယ စသည္အားျဖင့္ ဆက္လက္ ေပါင္း သြားတာပဲ ျဖစ္ပါတယ္။ နံပါတ္တစ္ခုနဲ႔ သူ႔ထက္ ဒုတိယ ပိုႀကီးတဲ့ နံပါတ္ တို႔ရဲ႕ အခ်ိဳး Ratio ဟာ 62%( အ တိက် ဆိုေသာ္ 61.8 % ) ပါပဲ။ ထင္ရွားတဲ့ Fibonacci retracement number ျဖစ္တဲ့အတြက္ အသုံးျပဳၾကပါ တယ္။ 62% ရဲ႕ ေျပာင္းျပန္ဟာ 38% ျဖစ္ပါတယ္။ ဒါကိုလည္း Fibonacci retracement number အျဖစ္ အ သုံးျပဳၾကပါေသးတယ္။
Fibonacci Expension လည္း ရွိပါေသးတယ္။

Gann numbers

W.D. Gann ဆိုတာကေတာ့ ေဈးကြက္မွာ ေဒၚလာ သန္း ၅၀ ႏွင့္အထက္ ကို အလုပ္လုပ္ေနတဲ့ stock ႏွင့္ commodity trader တေယာက္ပါပဲ။ time/price equivalents လို႔ သိထားတဲ့ price movement and time အၾကားက ဆက္သြယ္ခ်က္ေတြ အေပၚမွာ အေျခခံတဲ့ trading instruments ေတြကို ပိုမိုေကာင္းမြန္ တဲ့ နည္းစနစ္ေတြအျဖစ္ ရွာေဖြတြက္ထုတ္ပါတယ္။ အဲ့ဒီ နည္းစနစ္ေတြကို အသုံးျပဳျခင္းျဖင့္ သူ႔ရဲ႕ ေငြေၾကးဥ စၥာေတြကို ရွာေဖြခဲ့တာ ျဖစ္ပါတယ္။ Gann’s methods အတြက္ နားလည္ေအာင္ရွင္းျပဖို႔ မလြယ္ကူပါဘူး။
သို႔ေသာ္လည္း အႏွစ္ခ်ဳပ္ကို ေဖာ္ျပရမယ္ဆိုရင္ သူဟာ charts ထဲက angles ေတြကို support and resistance areas ေတြကို သတ္မွတ္ဖို႔ရန္ နဲ႔ အနာဂတ္ trend ေျပာင္းလဲမယ့္ အခ်ိန္ေတြကို ခန႔္မွန္းရန္ အ တြက္ အသုံးျပဳပါတယ္။ သူဟာ support and resistance areas ေတြကို ခန႔္မွန္းရန္ charts ေတြထဲက lines ေတြကိုလည္း အသုံးျပဳပါတယ္။

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Delbert_Gann

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Unicode

Technical Analysis မှာ ပါဝင်သော အချိူ့သော major technical analysis tools တွေကိုလည်း အခြေခံအားဖြင့် လေ့လာလိုက်ကြရအောင်..။

Relative Strength Index (RSI):

RSI ဟာ Up-moves ကနေ Down-moves တွေနဲ့ normalizes တွေရဲ့ Ratio ကို တွက်ထုတ် တိုင်းတာ ထား တာ ဖြစ်ပါတယ်။ သူ့ရဲ့ အညွန်းက တော့ 0-100 range တစ်ခု အနေနဲ့ ဖေါ်ပြပါတယ်။ အကယ်၍ RSI ဟာ 70 နှင့် အထက် မှာ ပြနေပြီ ဆိုပါက overbought (ဈေးကွက်မှာ မျှော်လင့်ထားသည်ထက်ပို၍ ဈေးနှုံးမြင့်တ က်နေပြီ ဆိုတဲ့ အခြေအနေ) ဖြစ်နေတယ်လို့ယူဆပါတယ်။ အကယ်၍ RSI ဟာ 30 နဲ့ အောက်မှာ ဖော်ပြနေ တယ် ဆိုပါက oversold (ဈေးကွက်မှာ မျှော်လင့်ထားသည်ထက် အောက်သို့ ဈေးနှုံးဟာ ပိုမို ကျဆင်းနေတဲ့ အခြေအနေတစ်ခ)ု ဖြစ်နေတဲ့signalတစ်ခုလို့သတ်မှတ်ရမှာပါ။

Stochastic oscillator

ဒီ Indicator ကိုတော့ 0-100% scale တစ်ခု အပေါ်မှာ overvought/oversold အခြေအနေတွေ ဖြစ်ပေါ်လာမှု ကို ညွန်ပြရန် အသုံးပြုပါတယ်။ ဒီ technical momentum indicator ရဲ့ တွက်ထုတ်ပုံကို တော့ နောက် သီးြ ခား post တစ်ခု အနေနဲ့ ဖော်ပြပါမယ်။ (ဒီမှာတော့ ယေဘုယျ ဖော်ပြပေးတာ ဖြစ်ပါတယ်။)
Period closing prices တွေဟာ သတ်မှတ်ထားတဲ့ ကာလ အပိုင်းအခြားအတွင်း မှာ ပိုမြင့်တဲ့ အစိတ်အပိုင်း မှာ အာရုံစူးစိုက်လေ့ရှိကြပါတယ် ဆိုတဲ့ အချက်နဲ့ strong up trend တွေ အပေါ်မှာ တည်မှီပြီးတော့ ဒီ indicator ကို အခြေခံ တည်ဆောက်ထားပါတယ်။ ထို့အတူ အပြန်အလှန်အားဖြင့် Period closing prices ေ တွဟာ သတ်မှတ်ထားတဲ့ ကာလ အပိုင်းအခြားအတွင်း မှာ ပိုနိမ့်တဲ့ အစိတ်အပိုင်းမှာ အာရုံစူးစိုက်လေ့ရှိကြပါ တယ်ဆိုတဲ့ အချက်နဲ့ Strong downtrend တွေအပေါ်မှာ တည်မှီပြီးတော့ လည်း ဒီ indicator ကို အခြေခံ တည်ဆောက်ထားပါသေးတယ်။ နားတွေ မျက်စေ့တွေ လည်သွားလောက်ပါပြီး အလွယ်ပြောရမယ်ဆိုရင် ဒီ indicator ဟာ Storng trend တွေရဲ့ နောက်ဆုံးအခြေအနေကို တွက်ထုတ်ပေးတဲ့ သဘောပါပဲ။ Stochastic calculations တွေဟာ လိုင်း နှစ်လိုင်း ထုတ်လုပ်ပါတယ်။
%K နဲ့ %D ပါ။ သူတို့ဟာ chart ရဲ့ overbought/oversold areas တွေကို ညွန်ပြပါတယ်။ Stochastic lines တွေအကြား ခြားနားချက်နဲ့ underlying instrument တွေရဲ့ price action တွေဟာ powerful Trading signal တစ်ခုကို ပေးပါတယ်။

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

ဒီ indicator ကတော့ momentum lines နှစ်လိုင်း ပါဝင်ပတ်သက်နေပါတယ်။ MACD line ဟာ moving averages ကို နှစ်ဆ မြှောက်ထားတဲ့ လိုင်းနှစ်လိုင်းရဲ့ ခြားနားမှုပါပဲ။ exponential moving averages of the difference ဖြစ်ပြီး signal or trigger line နဲ့ ပြပါတယ်။ အကယ်၍ MACD နဲ့ Trigger lines တွေ cross ဖြစ်ခဲ့လို့ ရှိရင် ဒါကို Trend direction ပြောင်းလဲ မှု တစ်ခု အတွက် ပြတဲ့ signal တစ်ခု ကဲ့သို့ ယူနိုင် ပါတယ်။

Fibonacci

Fibonacci number ဆိုတာကတော့ number sequence တစ်ခုပဲ ဖြစ်ပါတယ်။ (1,1,3,5,8,13,21,34,….) ဒါ ကို ဘယ်လို တည်ဆောက်ထားသလဲ ဆိုတော့ ပထမ+ဒုတိယ=တတိယ စသည်အားဖြင့် ဆက်လက် ပေါင်း သွားတာပဲ ဖြစ်ပါတယ်။ နံပါတ်တစ်ခုနဲ့ သူ့ထက် ဒုတိယ ပိုကြီးတဲ့ နံပါတ် တို့ရဲ့ အချိုး Ratio ဟာ 62%( အ တိကျ ဆိုသော် 61.8 % ) ပါပဲ။ ထင်ရှားတဲ့ Fibonacci retracement number ဖြစ်တဲ့အတွက် အသုံးပြုကြပါ တယ်။ 62% ရဲ့ ပြောင်းပြန်ဟာ 38% ဖြစ်ပါတယ်။ ဒါကိုလည်း Fibonacci retracement number အဖြစ် အ သုံးပြုကြပါသေးတယ်။
Fibonacci Expension လည်း ရှိပါသေးတယ်။

Gann numbers

W.D. Gann ဆိုတာကတော့ ဈေးကွက်မှာ ဒေါ်လာ သန်း ၅၀ နှင့်အထက် ကို အလုပ်လုပ်နေတဲ့ stock နှင့် commodity trader တယောက်ပါပဲ။ time/price equivalents လို့ သိထားတဲ့ price movement and time အကြားက ဆက်သွယ်ချက်တွေ အပေါ်မှာ အခြေခံတဲ့ trading instruments တွေကို ပိုမိုကောင်းမွန် တဲ့ နည်းစနစ်တွေအဖြစ် ရှာဖွေတွက်ထုတ်ပါတယ်။ အဲ့ဒီ နည်းစနစ်တွေကို အသုံးပြုခြင်းဖြင့် သူ့ရဲ့ ငွေကြေးဥ စ္စာတွေကို ရှာဖွေခဲ့တာ ဖြစ်ပါတယ်။ Gann’s methods အတွက် နားလည်အောင်ရှင်းပြဖို့ မလွယ်ကူပါဘူး။
သို့သော်လည်း အနှစ်ချုပ်ကို ဖော်ပြရမယ်ဆိုရင် သူဟာ charts ထဲက angles တွေကို support and resistance areas တွေကို သတ်မှတ်ဖို့ရန် နဲ့ အနာဂတ် trend ပြောင်းလဲမယ့် အချိန်တွေကို ခန့်မှန်းရန် အ တွက် အသုံးပြုပါတယ်။ သူဟာ support and resistance areas တွေကို ခန့်မှန်းရန် charts တွေထဲက lines တွေကိုလည်း အသုံးပြုပါတယ်။

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Delbert_Gann

to be continue….

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