TA and FA ဘယ္သူေတြက ဘယ္လို လုပ္ေဆာင္ခ်က္ေတြကို လုပ္ၾကပါသလဲ။

Fundamental သမား ေတြဟာ market movement ေတြရဲ႕ ျဖစ္ေစတဲ့ အေၾကာင္းတရားေတြကို ေလ့လာေနစဥ္မွာပဲ technical သမား ေတြကေတာ့ market movement ေတြေၾကာင့္ ျဖစ္ေပၚလာတဲ႕ အက်ိဳးတရားေတြကို ေလ့လာေနၾကပါတယ္။ ေအာင္ျမင္ေသာ traders အမ်ားစုဟာ ပိုမိုေကာင္းမြန္ေသာ ရလဒ္ ရဖို႕ အတြက္ နည္းစနစ္ ႏွစ္ခုစလံုးကို ေပါင္းစပ္ၿပီး အသံုးျပဳၾကေလ႕ ရွိၾကျပန္ပါတယ္။

Technical analysis

Technical analysis ဆိုတာ အတိတ္က ျဖစ္ေပၚခဲ႕ၿပီးတဲ႕ market action ေတြကို ျပေနတဲ႕ Charts ေတြေပၚမွာ ေလ႕လာပါတယ္။ ၿပီးေတာ့ ေနာက္လာမယ့္ အနာဂတ္ market trends ေတြနဲ႕ price movement ေတြကို ေဟာကိန္းထုတ္တဲ႕ (တြက္ထုတ္တဲ႕) နည္းစနစ္ပဲ ျဖစ္ပါတယ္။ ဒီနည္းစနစ္ဟာ trading volume, Price of instruments ေတြ ျဖစ္ရမယ့္ အေျခအေနေတြ ထက္ကို ေစ်းကြက္ထဲမွာ အမွန္တကယ္ ဘာေတြ ျဖစ္ပ်က္ခဲ႕သလဲ ဆိုတာနဲ႕ ပိုမိုသက္ဆိုင္ေနပါတယ္။ အဲ႕ဒီလို ျဖစ္ပ်က္ခဲ႕တဲ႕ data အခ်က္အလက္ေတြကို အသံုးျပဳၿပီးေတာ့ Charts ေတြကို ေရးဆြဲ ဖန္တီးထားၿပီး ျပန္ လည္ အသံုးခ်တာလည္း ျဖစ္ပါတယ္။

Technical analysis ရဲ႕ အဓိကက်တဲ႕ အားသာခ်က္ တစ္ခုကို ေျပာျပရမယ္္ဆိုရင္ အေတြ႕အႀကံဳရင့္တဲ႕ Technical trader တစ္ေယာက္ဟာ currencies markets မ်ားစြာနဲ႕ currencies market instruments ေတြကို တၿပိဳင္နက္တည္း အလြယ္တကူ ေလ႕လာ တြက္ထုတ္ ႏိုင္တာပါပဲ။Technical analysis ဟာ မရွိမျဖစ္ လိုအပ္တဲ႕ နိယာမ သံုးခုေပၚမွာ အေျခခံ တည္ေဆာက္ထားတယ္လို႕ ဆုိပါတယ္။ အဲ႕ဒါေတြကေတာ့

1. Market action discounts everything! 

အဓိပၸါယ္ကေတာ့ actual price ဆိုတာ လက္ရွိေစ်းကြက္မွာ ျဖစ္ေပၚေနတဲ႕ အေရာင္းအ၀ယ္ သို႕မဟုတ္ အျခား အေၾကာင္းေၾကာင့္ျဖစ္ေပၚလာတဲ႕ ေရာင္ျပန္ဟပ္မႈ တစ္ခုပါပဲ။ ဥပမာ Supply and demand, political factors and market sentiment တို႕ပဲ ျဖစ္ပါတယ္။ ဒါေပမယ့္ Pure technical analyst သမား တေယာက္အတြက္ၾကေတာ့ price movements တစ္ခုနဲ႕ သာလွ်င္ သက္ဆိုင္ေနပါတယ္။ အျခား ေသာ ဘယ္ေျပာင္းလဲမႈမ်ိဳး အတြက္ မွ သူ႕အတြက္ အေၾကာင္းျပခ်က္ တစံုတစ္ရာ ျပစရာ မရွိပါဘူး။ ဘာလို႕လဲ ဆိုေတာ့ သူက Technical analyst သမား သက္သက္သာ ျဖစ္ေနလို႕ပါပဲ။ (အျခားအေၾကာင္းေတြကို သူမေလ႕လာပါဘူး)

2. Prices move in trends

Technical analysis နည္းစနစ္ ဟာ Chart ေတြနဲ႕ ေဖာ္ထုတ္မွတ္သား ထားနိုင္တဲ႕ အတြက္ ၄င္း စနစ္ကို ေစ်းကြက္ အေျခအေနရဲ႕ ပံုစံေတြ ၾကာရွည္ သိမ္းဆည္းထားရန္ ရည္ရြယ္၍ အသံုးျပဳၾကပါတယ္။ ရရွိလာတဲ႕ patterns အမ်ားစုဟာ ျဖစ္ႏိုင္ေခ် ျမင့္ေသာ အထူး တြက္ထုတ္ထားတဲ႕ ရလဒ္ေတြလည္းပဲ ျဖစ္ပါတယ္။ အဲ႕ဒီလို မွတ္သားထားခဲ႕တဲ႕ patterns ေတြဟာလည္းပဲ ေစ်းကြက္မွာ မွန္ကန္တဲ႕ အေျခခံ တစ္ခု အျဖစ္ ထပ္ခါတလဲလဲ ျပန္ျဖစ္ေလ့ရွိပါတယ္။

3. History repeats itself

Forex chart patterns ေတြကို History အေနနဲ႕လည္း မွတ္သားထားျပန္ပါတယ္။ ၿပီးေတာ့ ႏွစ္ ၁၀၀ အထက္ အတြက္ ေတာင္မွ အမ်ိဳးအစားခြဲေပးနိုင္စြမ္း ရွိပါတယ္။ အခ်ိန္အနည္းငယ္ အတြင္းမွာ ေျပာင္းလဲတက္တဲ႕ လူသားေတြရဲ႕ စိတ္ပိုင္းဆိုင္ရာေတြကို ေကာက္ခ်က္ဆြဲႏိုင္ဖို႕ အတြက္ ဒီမ်ားျပားလွစြာေသာ patterns ေတြဟာ ထပ္ခါတလဲလဲ ျပန္လည္ ျပသေပးေနျပန္ပါတယ္။ forex charts ေတြဟာ price ေတြ ပါ၀င္ေနတဲ႕ market action ေတြ အေပၚမွာ အေျခခံ ေရးဆြဲ ေဖာ္ျပထားလည္း ျဖစ္ပါတယ္။ ေယဘုယ်အားျဖင့္ forex technical analysis theory မွာ အမ်ိဳးအစား အားျဖင့္ (၅) မ်ိဳး ရွိပါတယ္။ အဲ႕ဒါေတြကေတာ့
· Indicators (oscillators, e.g.: Relative Strength Index (RSI)
· Number theory (Fibonacci numbers, Gann numbers)
· Waves (Elliott wave theory)
· Gaps (high-low, open-closing)
· Trends (following moving average). တို႕ပဲ ျဖစ္ပါတယ္။

Unicode

Fundamental သမား တွေဟာ market movement တွေရဲ့ ဖြစ်စေတဲ့ အကြောင်းတရားတွေကို လေ့လာနေစဉ်မှာပဲ technical သမား တွေကတော့ market movement တွေကြောင့် ဖြစ်ပေါ်လာတဲ့ အကျိုးတရားတွေကို လေ့လာနေကြပါတယ်။ အောင်မြင်သော traders အများစုဟာ ပိုမိုကောင်းမွန်သော ရလဒ် ရဖို့ အတွက် နည်းစနစ် နှစ်ခုစလုံးကို ပေါင်းစပ်ပြီး အသုံးပြုကြလေ့ ရှိကြပြန်ပါတယ်။

Technical analysis

Technical analysis ဆိုတာ အတိတ်က ဖြစ်ပေါ်ခဲ့ပြီးတဲ့ market action တွေကို ပြနေတဲ့ Charts တွေပေါ်မှာ လေ့လာပါတယ်။ ပြီးတော့ နောက်လာမယ့် အနာဂတ် market trends တွေနဲ့ price movement တွေကို ဟောကိန်းထုတ်တဲ့ (တွက်ထုတ်တဲ့) နည်းစနစ်ပဲ ဖြစ်ပါတယ်။ ဒီနည်းစနစ်ဟာ trading volume, Price of instruments တွေ ဖြစ်ရမယ့် အခြေအနေတွေ ထက်ကို ဈေးကွက်ထဲမှာ အမှန်တကယ် ဘာတွေ ဖြစ်ပျက်ခဲ့သလဲ ဆိုတာနဲ့ ပိုမိုသက်ဆိုင်နေပါတယ်။ အဲ့ဒီလို ဖြစ်ပျက်ခဲ့တဲ့ data အချက်အလက်တွေကို အသုံးပြုပြီးတော့ Charts တွေကို ရေးဆွဲ ဖန်တီးထားပြီး ပြန် လည် အသုံးချတာလည်း ဖြစ်ပါတယ်။

Technical analysis ရဲ့ အဓိကကျတဲ့ အားသာချက် တစ်ခုကို ပြောပြရမယ်ဆိုရင် အတွေ့အကြုံရင့်တဲ့ Technical trader တစ်ယောက်ဟာ currencies markets များစွာနဲ့ currencies market instruments တွေကို တပြိုင်နက်တည်း အလွယ်တကူ လေ့လာ တွက်ထုတ် နိုင်တာပါပဲ။Technical analysis ဟာ မရှိမဖြစ် လိုအပ်တဲ့ နိယာမ သုံးခုပေါ်မှာ အခြေခံ တည်ဆောက်ထားတယ်လို့ ဆိုပါတယ်။ အဲ့ဒါတွေကတော့

1. Market action discounts everything!

အဓိပ္ပါယ်ကတော့ actual price ဆိုတာ လက်ရှိဈေးကွက်မှာ ဖြစ်ပေါ်နေတဲ့ အရောင်းအဝယ် သို့မဟုတ် အခြား အကြောင်းကြောင့်ဖြစ်ပေါ်လာတဲ့ ရောင်ပြန်ဟပ်မှု တစ်ခုပါပဲ။ ဥပမာ Supply and demand, political factors and market sentiment တို့ပဲ ဖြစ်ပါတယ်။ ဒါပေမယ့် Pure technical analyst သမား တယောက်အတွက်ကြတော့ price movements တစ်ခုနဲ့ သာလျှင် သက်ဆိုင်နေပါတယ်။ အခြား သော ဘယ်ပြောင်းလဲမှုမျိုး အတွက် မှ သူ့အတွက် အကြောင်းပြချက် တစုံတစ်ရာ ပြစရာ မရှိပါဘူး။ ဘာလို့လဲ ဆိုတော့ သူက Technical analyst သမား သက်သက်သာ ဖြစ်နေလို့ပါပဲ။ (အခြားအကြောင်းတွေကို သူမလေ့လာပါဘူး)

2. Prices move in trends

Technical analysis နည်းစနစ် ဟာ Chart တွေနဲ့ ဖော်ထုတ်မှတ်သား ထားနိုင်တဲ့ အတွက် ၎င်း စနစ်ကို ဈေးကွက် အခြေအနေရဲ့ ပုံစံတွေ ကြာရှည် သိမ်းဆည်းထားရန် ရည်ရွယ်၍ အသုံးပြုကြပါတယ်။ ရရှိလာတဲ့ patterns အများစုဟာ ဖြစ်နိုင်ချေ မြင့်သော အထူး တွက်ထုတ်ထားတဲ့ ရလဒ်တွေလည်းပဲ ဖြစ်ပါတယ်။ အဲ့ဒီလို မှတ်သားထားခဲ့တဲ့ patterns တွေဟာလည်းပဲ ဈေးကွက်မှာ မှန်ကန်တဲ့ အခြေခံ တစ်ခု အဖြစ် ထပ်ခါတလဲလဲ ပြန်ဖြစ်လေ့ရှိပါတယ်။

3. History repeats itself

Forex chart patterns တွေကို History အနေနဲ့လည်း မှတ်သားထားပြန်ပါတယ်။ ပြီးတော့ နှစ် ၁၀၀ အထက် အတွက် တောင်မှ အမျိုးအစားခွဲပေးနိုင်စွမ်း ရှိပါတယ်။ အချိန်အနည်းငယ် အတွင်းမှာ ပြောင်းလဲတက်တဲ့ လူသားတွေရဲ့ စိတ်ပိုင်းဆိုင်ရာတွေကို ကောက်ချက်ဆွဲနိုင်ဖို့ အတွက် ဒီများပြားလှစွာသော patterns တွေဟာ ထပ်ခါတလဲလဲ ပြန်လည် ပြသပေးနေပြန်ပါတယ်။ forex charts တွေဟာ price တွေ ပါဝင်နေတဲ့ market action တွေ အပေါ်မှာ အခြေခံ ရေးဆွဲ ဖော်ပြထားလည်း ဖြစ်ပါတယ်။ ယေဘုယျအားဖြင့် forex technical analysis theory မှာ အမျိုးအစား အားဖြင့် (၅) မျိုး ရှိပါတယ်။ အဲ့ဒါတွေကတော့
· Indicators (oscillators, e.g.: Relative Strength Index (RSI)
· Number theory (Fibonacci numbers, Gann numbers)
· Waves (Elliott wave theory)
· Gaps (high-low, open-closing)
· Trends (following moving average). တို့ပဲ ဖြစ်ပါတယ်။

652 thoughts on “TA and FA ဘယ္သူေတြက ဘယ္လို လုပ္ေဆာင္ခ်က္ေတြကို လုပ္ၾကပါသလဲ။”

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    ศัพท์อย่างคร่าวๆที่ใช่ในเกมที่ท่านควรจะรู้เป็นเบสิกสำหรับการเล่น คือ
    Player หรือผู้เล่น , Banker หรือ เจ้ามือ , TIE หรือ
    เสมอ , Bonus หรือที่พวกเราเรียกกันว่าโบนัสนั่นเอง , player pair หรือ banker pair เป็นการลงพนันแบบไพ่ออกแต้มมาคู่กัน
    นอกจากที่กล่าวมานี้ยังมีกติกาการเรียกไพ่ใบที่ 3 ถ้าเกิดท่านเลือกลงพนันฝั่งผู้เล่น (player) แล้วได้ไพ่สองใบแรกออกแต้มมาเป็น 0-5 แต้ม ท่านจะต้องเรียกไพ่ใบที่
    3 อัตโนมัติ ถ้าเกิดไพ่ออกมาได้ 5-6 แต้ม ท่านจะต้องรอฝั่งตรงข้ามเป็นฝั่งเจ้ามือ (banker) ว่าได้แต้มมากแค่ไหน ถ้าหากฝั่งเจ้ามือได้ 8-9
    แต้มก็จะจบเกมโดยทันที
    ด้วยเหตุว่าเป็นแต้มที่สูงที่สุดของไพ่แล้ว
    แล้วก็อีกอย่างที่ท่านจำเป็นต้องทราบเกี่ยวกับกติกาก็คือขั้นตอนการนับคะแนน หรือการออกแต้มของไพ่ ซึ่งถ้าหากว่าไพ่ออกมาเป็น A
    = 1แต้ม , แม้ได้ไพ่
    J Q K 10 = 0 แต้ม , ถ้าออกไพ่มา
    2-9 = 2-9 แต้ม ถ้าได้ไพ่มาก็สามารถนับแต้มได้ตามไพ่ได้เลยแนวทางการเลือกพนัน
    พวกเราสามารถเลือกลงพนันได้หลายต้นแบบ
    ดังต่อไปนี้-ฝั่งผู้เล่น แม้เราเลือกลงทุนฝั่งเจ้ามือ
    (player) แล้วแต้มออกมาสูงขึ้นมากยิ่งกว่าอีกฝั่งท่านจะชนะ โดยมีอัตราผลตอบแทนคือ 1 : 1 ถ้าหากว่าเราเลือกลงทุนฝั่งเจ้ามือ (banker) แล้วไพ่ออกมาแต้มสูงหรือมากกว่าอีกฝั่งจะมีอัตราผลตอบแทนเป็น 1 : 0.95
    -การเลือกลงทุนแบบเสมอหรือTIEนั้น ถ้าไพ่มีผลออกมาเท่ากันระหว่างผู้เล่น(player) กับเจ้ามือ(banker) อย่างเช่น 4-4 5-5 8-8
    2-2 เพียงแต่ไพ่ออกแต้มมาเท่ากัน ท่านก็จะสำเร็จทดแทนมากยิ่งกว่าการลงพนันแบบธรรมดาถึง 8
    เท่า -การลงพนันอีกรูปแบบนึงเป็น การเลือกพนันแบบโบนัส(Bonus) เป็นการลงพนันโดยต้องลุ้นให้ไพ่ที่ออกมานั้นห่างกันมากยิ่งกว่า 4 แต้ม
    ได้แก่ ถ้าหากท่านเลือกลงเดิมพันฝั่งเจ้ามือ(banker)
    ไพ่ฝั่งผู้เล่นออกแต้มมา 2 แต้ม ไพ่ฝั่งเจ้ามือจำเป็นต้องออกแต้มมากยิ่งกว่าหรือเท่ากับ 6 แต้มแค่นั้น จึงจะชนะแล้วก็ได้รับโบนัสทันที และหากว่าท่านเลือกลงพนันฝั่งใดฝั่งนึงแล้วได้ไพ่มากกว่าอีกฝั่ง
    8 แต้มขึ้นไปท่านจะเห็นผลทดแทนไปเลย 30 เท่า
    -รวมทั้งการลงพนันรูปแบบท้ายที่สุด เป็นการลงเดิมพันแบบไพ่คู่ แม้ท่านเลือกลงไพ่คู่ฝั่งเจ้ามือ (banker pair) ไพ่2ใบแรกจะต้องออกมาเป็นเลขที่เช่นกันอีกทั้ง2ใบ อย่างเช่น 1-1 2-2
    อย่างเดียวกันหากว่าท่านเลือกลงเดิมพันไพ่คู่ฝั่งผู้เล่น (player pair) ถ้าเกิดไพ่ 2 ใบแรกออกมาแต้มเช่นกันท่านก็จะได้รับผลตอบแทนมากยิ่งกว่าธรรมดาไปเลย 11 เท่าสำหรับต้นแบบเกมก็จะมีลักษณะแบบที่กล่าวไปก่อนหน้านี้วนๆไปแบบนี้ตลอดทั้งเกม
    และผลตอบแทนจะต่างกันออกไปในแต่ละโต๊ะ ท่านสามารถเลือกลงพนันตามความชำนาญได้ตามต้องการ และก็สามารถแปลงขั้นตอนการลงเดิมพันตามยุทธวิธีของแต่ว่าคนเพื่อเพิ่มช่องทางในการทำเงินได้เลย

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