Forex Lessons

Waves

Elliott wave theory ဆိုတာကေတာ့ market ကို analysis လုပ္ဖို႕ အတြက္ ခ်ည္းကပ္နည္းေကာင္း တစ္ခုပါ ပဲ။ ထပ္ခါတလဲလဲ ျဖစ္ေနတဲ႕ wave patterns ေတြ၊ Fibonacci number sequence ေတြနဲ႕ အေျခခံထား တာျဖစ္ပါတယ္။ စံျပ Elliott wave patterns ေတြဟာ five-wave တစ္ခု လွမ္းၿပီး three-wave တစ္ခုက ဆု တ္တဲ႕ အေနနဲ႕ ေနာက္ကလိုက္ပါတယ္။

Ref; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle

Gaps

Gaps ဆိုတာကေတာ့ Bar chart အေပၚမွာ ဘာ trading မွ မျဖစ္ခဲ႕တဲ႕ ေနရာ ေတြပါပဲ။ Trading day တစ္ရ က္ မွာ အနိမ့္ဆံုး ေစ်း (lowest price) ဟာ အရင္ရက္က အျမင့္ဆံုး ေစ်းထက္ ကို ပိုမို ျမင့္မား ေနတဲ့ အခါမွာ Up gap တစ္ခု ျဖစ္ေပၚတက္ပါတယ္။ အလားတူပဲ ယေန႕ အျမင့္ဆံုး ေစ်းဟာ ယမန္ေန႕ က အနိမ့္ဆံုးေစ်းထ က္ နိမ္႕က်ေနတဲ႕ အခါမွာလည္း Down gap တစ္ခု ျဖစ္ေပၚတက္ပါတယ္။ Up gap ဟာ အမ်ားအားျဖင့္ market strength ကို ျပၿပီးေတာ့ Down gap ကေတာ့ market weakness ကို ၫြန္ျပေလ႕ ရွိပါတယ္။
Breakaway gap ကေတာ့ important price pattern တစ္ခု ျဖစ္ၿပီး တဲ႕ အခါမွာ ျဖစ္ေပၚလာတဲ႕ price gap တစ္ခုျဖစ္ၿပီးေတာ့ အေရးၾကီးတဲ႕ price move ရဲ႕ အစမွာ ျဖစ္ေပၚေလ႕ ရွိတဲ႕ signals ေတြပဲ ျဖစ္ပါတယ္။ Runaway gap ကေတာ့ important market trend ရဲ႕ အလယ္ မွာ ျဖစ္ေပၚလာေလ႕ ရွိတဲ႕ price gap ပါ။ Exhaustion gap ကေတာ့ important trend တစ္ခုရဲ႕ အဆံုးမွာ ျဖစ္ေပၚေလ႕ရွိတဲ႕ price gap ျဖစ္ၿပီးေတာ့ trend ဟာ ၿပီးဆံုးေနၿပီးဆိုတာကို ျပသတဲ႕ signals ေတြပဲ ျဖစ္ပါတယ္။

Trend

Trend ဆိုတာကေတာ့ prices ေတြရဲ႕ direction ကို ကိုယ္စားျပဳပါတယ္။ ျမင့္တက္လာတဲ႕ ထိပ္စြန္းဖ်ား Higher High ေတြ နဲ႕ Higher low ေတြဟာ Up trend ကို ကိုယ္စားျပဳၿပီးေတာ့ နိမ္႕က်သြားတဲ႕ Lower High နဲ႕ Lower Low ေတြဟာ Downtrend လို႕ သတ္မွတ္ပါတယ္။ current trend ရဲ႕ မတ္ေစာက္မႈေတြကို လည္း သတ္မွတ္ေလ႕ ရွိပါတယ္။ Trend line တစ္ခုကို Break ျဖစ္သြားတဲ႕ Signals ဟာ trend reversal ပါပဲ။ ေရျပ င္ညီ ထိပ္စြန္းေတြနဲ႕ ေအာက္စြန္း ေတြဟာ Trading range တစ္ခု ကို ကိုယ္စားျပဳပါတယ္။ Price information ေတြကို smooth ျဖစ္ရန္ အသံုးျပဳရတဲ႕ moving averages ေတြကို trends ႏွင့္ support and
resistance levels ေတြအျဖစ္နဲ႕ လည္း အသံုးျပဳႏိုင္ပါတယ္။ Moving averages ေတြဟာ trading strategy တစ္ခု အေပၚမွာ ဆံုးျဖတ္ခ်က္ခ်ရာမွာ အသံုးျပဳပါတယ္။ အထူးသျဖင့္ အနာဂတ္ Trading သို႕မဟုတ္ market ဟာ strong up လား၊ down trend လားဆိုတာေတြကို ဆံုးျဖတ္ခ်က္ ခ်ေပးရာမွာ အသံုး၀င္ပါတယ္။

Coppock Curve

Coppock Curve ဆိုတာ bear market lows ေတြကို ခန္႕မွန္းရန္ အတြက္ technical analysis ထဲမွာ အသံုးျ
ပဳမယ့္ investment tool တစ္ခုပဲ ျဖစ္ပါတယ္။ DMI (Directional Movement Indicator)
DMI (Directional Movement Indicator) ကေတာ့ currency pair တစ္ခု ဟာ Trending ျဖစ္တယ္ မျဖစ္ ဘူး ဆိုတာကို ဆံုးျဖတ္ရန္ အသံုးျပဳတဲ႕ ထင္ေပၚေက်ာ္ၾကားတဲ႕ technical indicator တစ္ခု ျဖစ္ပါတယ္။

Fundamental analysis သမား နဲ႕ မတူပဲ technical analyst သမား ဟာ ေစ်းကြက္ ကို သက္ေရာက္ေစမယ့္ ဘယ္ bigger picture factors ေတြနဲ႕မွ ပတ္သက္ ဆက္စပ္မႈ မရွိတာပါပဲ။ သို႕ေသာ္လည္း ေစ်းကြက္ ရဲ႕ လႈ ပ္ရွားမႈ အေပၚမွာေတာ့ အာ႐ံုစူးစိုက္ထားရွိဖို႕ ေတာ့လိုပါတယ္။

Unicode

Waves

Elliott wave theory ဆိုတာကတော့ market ကို analysis လုပ်ဖို့ အတွက် ချည်းကပ်နည်းကောင်း တစ်ခုပါ ပဲ။ ထပ်ခါတလဲလဲ ဖြစ်နေတဲ့ wave patterns တွေ၊ Fibonacci number sequence တွေနဲ့ အခြေခံထား တာဖြစ်ပါတယ်။ စံပြ Elliott wave patterns တွေဟာ five-wave တစ်ခု လှမ်းပြီး three-wave တစ်ခုက ဆု တ်တဲ့ အနေနဲ့ နောက်ကလိုက်ပါတယ်။

Ref; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle

Gaps

Gaps ဆိုတာကတော့ Bar chart အပေါ်မှာ ဘာ trading မှ မဖြစ်ခဲ့တဲ့ နေရာ တွေပါပဲ။ Trading day တစ်ရ က် မှာ အနိမ့်ဆုံး ဈေး (lowest price) ဟာ အရင်ရက်က အမြင့်ဆုံး ဈေးထက် ကို ပိုမို မြင့်မား နေတဲ့ အခါမှာ Up gap တစ်ခု ဖြစ်ပေါ်တက်ပါတယ်။ အလားတူပဲ ယနေ့ အမြင့်ဆုံး ဈေးဟာ ယမန်နေ့ က အနိမ့်ဆုံးဈေးထ က် နိမ့်ကျနေတဲ့ အခါမှာလည်း Down gap တစ်ခု ဖြစ်ပေါ်တက်ပါတယ်။ Up gap ဟာ အများအားဖြင့် market strength ကို ပြပြီးတော့ Down gap ကတော့ market weakness ကို ညွန်ပြလေ့ ရှိပါတယ်။
Breakaway gap ကတော့ important price pattern တစ်ခု ဖြစ်ပြီး တဲ့ အခါမှာ ဖြစ်ပေါ်လာတဲ့ price gap တစ်ခုဖြစ်ပြီးတော့ အရေးကြီးတဲ့ price move ရဲ့ အစမှာ ဖြစ်ပေါ်လေ့ ရှိတဲ့ signals တွေပဲ ဖြစ်ပါတယ်။ Runaway gap ကတော့ important market trend ရဲ့ အလယ် မှာ ဖြစ်ပေါ်လာလေ့ ရှိတဲ့ price gap ပါ။ Exhaustion gap ကတော့ important trend တစ်ခုရဲ့ အဆုံးမှာ ဖြစ်ပေါ်လေ့ရှိတဲ့ price gap ဖြစ်ပြီးတော့ trend ဟာ ပြီးဆုံးနေပြီးဆိုတာကို ပြသတဲ့ signals တွေပဲ ဖြစ်ပါတယ်။

Trend

Trend ဆိုတာကတော့ prices တွေရဲ့ direction ကို ကိုယ်စားပြုပါတယ်။ မြင့်တက်လာတဲ့ ထိပ်စွန်းဖျား Higher High တွေ နဲ့ Higher low တွေဟာ Up trend ကို ကိုယ်စားပြုပြီးတော့ နိမ့်ကျသွားတဲ့ Lower High နဲ့ Lower Low တွေဟာ Downtrend လို့ သတ်မှတ်ပါတယ်။ current trend ရဲ့ မတ်စောက်မှုတွေကို လည်း သတ်မှတ်လေ့ ရှိပါတယ်။ Trend line တစ်ခုကို Break ဖြစ်သွားတဲ့ Signals ဟာ trend reversal ပါပဲ။ ရေပြ င်ညီ ထိပ်စွန်းတွေနဲ့ အောက်စွန်း တွေဟာ Trading range တစ်ခု ကို ကိုယ်စားပြုပါတယ်။ Price information တွေကို smooth ဖြစ်ရန် အသုံးပြုရတဲ့ moving averages တွေကို trends နှင့် support and
resistance levels တွေအဖြစ်နဲ့ လည်း အသုံးပြုနိုင်ပါတယ်။ Moving averages တွေဟာ trading strategy တစ်ခု အပေါ်မှာ ဆုံးဖြတ်ချက်ချရာမှာ အသုံးပြုပါတယ်။ အထူးသဖြင့် အနာဂတ် Trading သို့မဟုတ် market ဟာ strong up လား၊ down trend လားဆိုတာတွေကို ဆုံးဖြတ်ချက် ချပေးရာမှာ အသုံးဝင်ပါတယ်။

Coppock Curve

Coppock Curve ဆိုတာ bear market lows တွေကို ခန့်မှန်းရန် အတွက် technical analysis ထဲမှာ အသုံးြ
ပုမယ့် investment tool တစ်ခုပဲ ဖြစ်ပါတယ်။ DMI (Directional Movement Indicator)
DMI (Directional Movement Indicator) ကတော့ currency pair တစ်ခု ဟာ Trending ဖြစ်တယ် မဖြစ် ဘူး ဆိုတာကို ဆုံးဖြတ်ရန် အသုံးပြုတဲ့ ထင်ပေါ်ကျော်ကြားတဲ့ technical indicator တစ်ခု ဖြစ်ပါတယ်။

Fundamental analysis သမား နဲ့ မတူပဲ technical analyst သမား ဟာ ဈေးကွက် ကို သက်ရောက်စေမယ့် ဘယ် bigger picture factors တွေနဲ့မှ ပတ်သက် ဆက်စပ်မှု မရှိတာပါပဲ။ သို့သော်လည်း ဈေးကွက် ရဲ့ လှု ပ်ရှားမှု အပေါ်မှာတော့ အာရုံစူးစိုက်ထားရှိဖို့ တော့လိုပါတယ်။

 

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