ျပည္​​ေထာင္​စုုျမန္​မာ ႏိူင္​ငံ​ေတာ္​ ဘဏ္​ ကို ​ေ၀ဖန္​ျခင္​း

ႏိူင္​ငံတစ္​ႏိူင္​ငံ၏ ႏိူင္​ငံ​ေရးႏွင္​့ စီးပြား​ေရးသည္​ လူတစ္​​ေယာက္​၏ “႐ုပ္​´´ႏွင္​့ “နာမ္​´´လို ဒြန္​တြဲစြာ တည္​႐ွိ​ေန ၾကသည္​၊၊ဘယ္​ဟာက အ​ေရးႀကီးလည္​း​ေမးပါက ႏွစ္​ခု လံုးအ​ေရးႀကီးသည္​ဟုဆိုရမည္​။ ၎ ႏွစ္​ခု မွ တစ္​ခုစီ ကြဲ သြား ကြာသြား ခဲ့ပါက အိုးစားကြဲ မည္​ျဖစ္​သည္​။
မ်က္​​ေမွာက္​​ေခတ္​ ဖြံ႔ၿဖိဳးၿပီးႏိူင္​ငံ အမ်ားစုသည္​ ႏိူင္​ငံ​ေရး စနစ္​ ကို စီးပြား​ေရးတိုးတက္​ ႀကီးထြားမႉ ့အ​ေပၚ၌ အ​ေျခ စိုက္​ထားၾကသည္​ကမ်ားသည္​။ တ႐ုတ္​ ႏိူင္​ငံ၊ ႐ု႐ွားႏိူင္​ငံ တို႔ႏွင္​့ ဂ်ပန္​ ႏိူင္​ငံ တို႔ ၏ စီးပြား​ေရး တိုးတက္​မႉ ့အ​ေျခ​ေန မွ ႏိူင္​ငံ​ေရး စနစ္​​ေကာင္​းမ်ားကို ဖန္​တီးႏိူင္​ၾကၿပီး ကမာၻ႔ဇာတ္​ခံု​ေပၚ၌လည္​း အ​ေမရိကန္​ ႏိူင္​ငံကို ပခံုးခ်င္​းယွဥ္​ ႏိူင္​ အဆင္​့ အထိ ႐ွိလာၾကသည္​။ ထို႔​ေၾကာင္​့ စီးပြား​ေရး တိုးတက္​မႉ ့႐ွိမွ ႏိူင္​ငံ​ေရးစနစ္​ ခိုင္​မာ ​ေတာင္​့တင္​းမႉ ့႐ွိ ႏိူင္​သည္​ကို မီး​ေမာင္​းထိုးျပျခင္​းျဖစ္​သည္​။ စီးပြား​ေရးတိုး တက္​ ဖြံ ့ၿဖိဳးဖို႔ ဆိုသည္​မွာလည္​း ဗဟိုဘဏ္​ မ်ား၏ ​ေငြ​ေၾကး​ေပၚလစီ သည္​ အဓိက က်​ေနသည္​။အ​ေမရိကန္​ Fedဗဟိုဘဏ္​ သည္​ ၂၀၀၈ခုႏွစ္​ ဘ႑ာ​ေရးပ်က္​ကပ္​
တုန္​းက ​ေငြ​ေၾကး​ေပၚလစီ အ​ေျပာင္​းအလဲ လုပ္​ခဲ့၍သာ ယ​ေန႔ အထိ စီးပြား​ေရးၾက့ံခိုင္​မႉ ့႐ွိ​ေနျခင္​းျဖစ္​သည္​။ ၎အခ်ိန္​မွ စၿပီး Fed ဗဟိုဘဏ္​ သည္​ အတိုးႏႉန္​းကို သုည အဆင္​့အထိ ​ေလ်ွာ့ခ် ထားခဲ့ၿပီးႏိႉးဆြ စီးပြား​ေရး ​ေပၚလစီ ကို က်င္​့ သုံးခဲ့ၿပီး၂၀၁၅ခုႏွစ္​ ဒီဇင္​ဘာလ အထိ ဗဟိုဘဏ္​ အတိုးႏႉန္​းကို မတိုးဘဲ သုည အဆင္​့၌သာ ထား႐ွိခဲ့ၿပီးတိုင္​းျပည္​ စီးပြား​ေရး နားလန္​ထူ​ေအာင္​ ႀကိဳးစားခဲ့သည္​။

ဗဟိုဘဏ္​သည္​ တိုင္​းျပည္​ ၏ ဘဏ္​လုပ္​ငန္​းဆိုင္​ရာကိစၥရပ္​မ်ားျဖစ္​ၾကသည္​့ ​ေငြစကၠဴထုတ္​​ေ၀ျခင္​း၊ ​ေခ်း​ေငြလုပ္​ငန္​းမ်ားကို စီမံ ထိန္​းခ်ဳပ္​ကိုင္​တြယ္​ျခင္​း လည္​ပတ္​​ေငြ​ေၾကးပမာဏ ကို လိုအပ္​သလို အတိုး အ​ေလ်ွာ့ လုပ္​ျခင္​းတို႔အျပင္​ အတိုးႏႉန္​းႏွင္​့​ေငြ​ေၾကး  ​ေဖာင္​းပြျခင္​းတို႔ကို သမမ်ွတ​ေအာင္​ ထိန္​းညႇိစီမံ ​ေဆာင္​ရြက္​ ​ေပးရသည္​။ “ဘဏ္​မ်ား၏ ​ေနာက္​ဆံုး အားထားရာ ​ေခ်းငွါးသူ´´(Lender of Last Resort)
အျဖစ္​လည္​းတာ၀န္​ယူ​ေပးရသည္​။ အခ်ိဳ႕​ေသာဗဟိုဘဏ္​ တို႔ကို အစိုးရ မွ တိုက္​႐ုိတ္​ခ်ဳပ္​ကိုင္​ ၿပီးတခ်ိဳ႕က​ေတာ့ ကိုယိပိုင္​ ​ေပၚလစီမ်ားျဖင္​့ ရပ္​တည္​​ေဆာင္​ရြက္​ၾကသည္​။

ျပည္​​ေထာင္​စုျမန္​မာႏိူင္​ငံ​ေတာ္​ဘဏ္​ ကို ၁၉၄၇ခုႏွစ္​ ျပည္​​ေထာင္​စုျမန္​မာႏိူင္​ငံ​ေတာ္​ ဘဏ္​အက္​ဥပ​ေဒအရ ၁၉၄၈ ခုႏွစ္​ ​​ေဖ​ေဖာ္​၀ါရီ လ ၄ရက္​​ေန႔ ၌ ခြင္​့ျပဳမတည္​​ေငြ က်ပ္​သန္​း ၄၀ျဖင္​့ တည္​​ေထာင္​ခဲ့သညိ။ ၎အခ်ိန္​၌ ဗဟိုဘဏ္​၏ လုပ္​ပိုင္​ခြင္​့အာဏာအတြက္​ အိနၵိယ ရီဇတ္​ဘဏ္မွ ဘဏ္​ လုပ္​ငန္​းမ်ားကို တာ၀န္​ခြဲ​ေ၀ ယူခဲ့ၿပီး ၁၉၅၂ခုႏွစ္​ ဇူလိႉင္​လ ​ေရာက္​မွသာ ျပည္​​ေထာင္​စုျမန္​မာႏိူင္​ငံ​ေတာ္​ ဘဏ္​ ဥပ​ေဒ ျပဌာန္းၿပီးဗဟိုဘဏ္​ ၏ လုပ္​ငန္​းစဥ္​အားလံုးကို ​လႊဲယူ ​ေဆာင္​ရြက္​ခြင္​့ရ႐ွ္​ိခဲ့သည္​။ ၎ဥပ​ေဒအရ ျမန္​မာအစိုးရ ​ေငြ​ေၾကးအုပ္​ခ်ဳပ္​မႉ႕ အဖြဲ႔ထံက​ေန ​ေငြ​ေၾကးစကၠဴမ်ားကို ႐ိုတ္​ႏွိပ္​ထုတ္​​ေ၀ခြင္​့ အာဏာကို ျပည္​​ေထာင္​စုျမန္​မာ ႏိူင္​ငံ​ေတာ္​ဘဏ္​က လႊဲ​ေျပာင္​းယူခဲ့သည္​။ ၁၉၅၃ခုႏွစ္​​ေလာက္​ကျမန္​မာက်ပ္​​ေငြ တန္​ဖိုးကို ​ေဒၚလာ ႏွင္​့ ႏိႉင္​းယွဥ္​ရာ၌ ၁​ေဒၚလာ=၄က်ပ္​ ​ေလာက္​သာ​႐ွိခဲ့သည္​။ ၁၉၆၂ခုႏွစ္​မွ ၁၉၈၈ခုႏွစ္​ ကာလအတြင္​းမွာ ျမန္​မာ့​ေငြ​ေၾကးစနစ္​သည္​ဆို႐ွယ္​လစ္​​ေခတ္​ ​ေငြ​ေၾကးစနစ္​ဟူ၍ထင္​ျခားသည္​။ သို႔​ေသာ္​ ႏိူင္​ငံ​ေတာ္​အစိုးရသည္​ ၁၉၆၄ခုႏွစိ၌တစ္​ႀကိမ္​ ၁၉၈၅ခုႏွစိ၌တစ္​ႀကိမ္​၊ျပည္​တြင္​းလည္​ပတ္​သုံးစြဲ​ေငြစကၠဴ အခ်ိဴ႕ကို တရား၀င္​အျဖစ္​မွရပ္​စဲ မႉ့ ျပဳလုပ္​ခဲ့သည္​။ ၁၉၈၇ခုႏွစ္​စက္​တင္​ဘာ၅ရက္​​ေန႔က ၂၅က်ပ္​တန္​၊ ၃၅က်ပ္​တန္​ႏွင္​့၇၅က်ပ္​တန္​တို႔ကို လည္​ပတ္​သုံးစြဲျခင္​းမွ ရက္​ ဆိုင္​းၿပီး အစားျပန္​​ေလ်ာ္​​ေပးျခင္​း ၊လဲလွယ္​​ေပးျခင္​း မ်ိဴးလည္​းမျပဳလုပ္​ဘဲ ရပ္​ဆိုင္​းျခင္​း​ေၾကာင္​့တိုင္​းျပည္​​ေငြ​ေၾကး၇၀%​ေလာက္​သည္​ တန္​ဖိုးမဲ့ျဖစ္​သြားခဲ့ရသည္​။ ၎အခ်ိန္​ကာလ တုန္​းက ဘ႑ာ​ေရး၀န္​ႀကီးသူ​ရ ဦးထြန္​းတင္​ လက္​ ထက္​ ၌ ျဖစ္​ပါသည္​။၎ စနစ္​ မွား​ေၾကာင္​့
တိုင္​းျပည္​စီးပြား​ေရးကို မ်ားစြာ ထိခိုက္​​ေစခဲ့ပါသည္​။

၁၉၈၈ခုႏွစ္​​ေနာက္​ပိုင္​းမွစၿပီးျမန္​မာ့စီးပြား​ေရးနစ္​ကို စီမံကိန္​း စနစ္​မ​ွ ​ေဈးကြက္​စီးပြား​ေရးစနစ္​သို႔ ​ေျပာင္​းလဲခဲ့သည္​။၎မွ မ်က္​​ေမွာတ္​ ​ေခတ္​အထိ ​ေငြ​ေၾကး စနစ္​သည္​ ​ေဈးကြက္​စီးပြား​ေရးစနစ္​ အ​ေပၚ႐ွင္​သန္​​ေနပါသည္​။ သို႔​ေသာ္​ ​ေငြ​ေၾကး​ေပၚလစီ စနစ္​ မွား
ယြငး္​ခဲ့သည္​ ဆို ၇မလား၊ မွား​ေနသည္​ဘဲ ဆိုရမလား​ေတာ့ မသိ။လက္​႐ွိ ​ေငြ​ေၾကး​ေဖာင္​းပြမႉ ့ႏႉနိးက ၇.၉၈% အထိ႐ွိ​ေနသည္​။တ႐ုတ္​ႏိူင္​ငံက ၁.၇%၊ ယူ႐ုိဧရိယာက ၁.၅%၊အိနၵိယ က ၄.ဂ%၊ အင္​ဒိုနီး႐ွားက ၃.၆%၊ ဂ်ပန္​က ၀.၆%၊စသျဖင္​့ ႐ွိၾကၿပီး ျမန္​မာႏိုင္​ငံက​ေငြ​ေၾကး ​ေဖာင္​းပြ မႉ့ႏႉနိး ျမင္​မား​ေနသည္​။အ​ေမရိကန္​Fedဗဟိုဘဏ္​၊ BOJ၊ ECB တို႔သည္​ ​ေငြ​ေၾကး​ေဖာင့း္​ပြ မႉ့ႏႉန္​းကို 2% targetထားၾကသည္​။ ၎ အထက္​ ​ေရာက္​ မွာစိုးလို႔ ၎ နား နီးလာပါက ဗဟိုဘဏ္​အတိုးႏႉန္​းကို တိုးဖို႔ ဟန္​ျပင္​​ေနၾကၿပီျဖစ္​သည္​။
ကမာၻ့ ဘဏ္​က​ေတာင္​ ျမန္​မာ့ ​ေငြ​ေၾကး​ေဖာင္​းပြ မႉ့ကို စိုးရိမ္​စရာ ျပႆနာဟု ပင္​ သတိ​ေပးထားခဲ့သည္​။ ျမန္​မာႏိူင္​ငံ၏ ဗဟိုဘဏ္​အတိုးန​ူန္​းသည္​ ၁၃% အထိ ႐ွိ​ေလသညိ။ ၎အတိုးႏႉန္​းသည္​ ဖြံ႔ ၿဖိဳးၿပီးႏိူင္​ငံမ်ားႏွင္​့ ႏိႉင္​းယွဥ္​ပါက လြန္​စာျမင္​့မား​ေနသလို ဖြံ ့ၿဖိဳးဆဲ
ႏိူင္​ငံ မ်ား အခ်င္​းခ်င္​းႏွင္​့ ႏိႉင္​းယွဥ္​သည္​့တိုင္​ ျမင္​့မားလ်က္​ ႐ွိ​ေန​ပါသည္​။ ​၁၃ႀကိမ္​​ေျမာက္​က်င္​းပခဲ့ၿပီးသည္​့ျမန္​မာႏိုင္​ငံ ကုန္​သည္​ ႏွင္​့စက္​မႉ့လုပ္​ငန္​း႐ွင္​မ်ားအသင္​း​ေတြ႔ ဆံု​ေဆြး​ေႏြးပြဲ၌ ဗဟိုဘဏ္​ ​ေခ်း​ေငြ အတိုးႏႉန္​း ​ေလ်ွာ့ခ် ဖို႔ ​ေတာင္​းဆို ခဲ့သည္​။

သို႔​ေသာ္​ ဗဟိုဘဏ္​ အတိုးႏႉန္​း​ေလ်ွာ့ခ် ပါက Inflation(​ေငြ​ေၾကး​ေဖာင္​းပြ မႉ ့)သည္​စိုးရိမ္​​ေရ မွတ္​ ထက္​​ေတာင္​ ​ေက်ာ္​ လြန္​သြားႏိူင္​
သည္​။ လက္​႐ွိ​ေတာင္​ ၇.၈၉%ဆို​ေတာ့ Inflationမွ Hyperinflationသို႔ ​ေရာက္​ ႐ွိသြားပါက မ​ေတြးရဲစရာ အ​ေနထားသို႔ ​ေရာက္​႐ွိသြားႏိူင္​သည္​။၁၉၂၃ခုႏွစ္​ Hyperinflation သည္​ ဂ်ာမဏီႏိူင္​ငံ ကို ဒုကၡ မ်ားစြာ​ေရာက္​​ေစခဲ့သည္​။ ၁၉၂၃ခုႏွစ္​ ​ေဆာင္​းရာသီ တုန္​းက
​ေပါင္​မုနိ႔ တစ္​လံုး တန္​ဖိုးသည္​ ၂၀၀,၀၀၀,၀၀၀,၀၀၀ marks ​ေငြ ​ေပးခဲ့ရသည္​။ အလုပ္​သမားတို႔၏ လုပ္​ခ လစာမ်ားသည္​လည္​း အခ်ိန္​ႏွင္​့မ်ွ တန္​ဖိုး​ေလ်ာ့​ေနခဲ့သည္​။ ဘဏ္​ထဲ၌ အပ္​ႏွံထားၾကသည္​့ အပ္​ႏွံ​ေငြမ်ားသည္​လည္​းတန္​ဖိုး မဲ့ အ​ေျခ ​ေနသို႔ ​ေရာက္​႐ွိခဲ့ၾကသည္​။
ထို႔​ေၾကာင္​့ဗဟိုဘဏ္​က၀ိ မ်ားတို႔ အ​ေနျဖင္​့ သတိ ထား သုံးသပ္​စိစစ္​ၿပီးမွ ​ေငြ​ေၾကး​ေပၚလစီ ကို ​ခ်မွတ္​သင့္​့ပါသည္​။ အ​ေမရိကန္​ ႏိုင္​ငံ မွာ​ေတာ့ ျပည္​ နယ္​ ၁၂ခုမွာ ဗဟိုဘဏ္​ ဥကၠဌ တစ္​ ဦးစီ ထား႐ွိၿပီးFOMC အစည္​း ​ေ၀းမ်ားမွာ ၎ တို႔ ၏ အၾကံျပဳခ်က္​မ်ား၊ မဲခြဲ အတည္​ျပဳ
ခ်က္​မ်ားျဖင္​့ ​ေငြ​ေၾကး​ေပၚလစီ ကို အထူးဂ႐ုစိုက္​၍ ထိန္​းခ်ဳပ္​စီ မံ ၾကသည္​။ FOMCအစည္​း​ေ၀းကို ၁ႏွစ္​မွာ ၈ႀကိမ္​ ​ပုံ မွန္​ ျပဳလုပ္​ၾကသည္​။ အစည္​း​ေ၀းတစ္​ခုစီ၌ စီးပြား​ေရးအ​ေျခ​ေန ကို သုံးသပ္​မႉ ့မ်ားျပဳလုပ္​​ေဆြး​ေႏြးၾကၿပီး၎ ကို အ​ေျခ ခံ၍ expansionary policy ကို အသုံးျပဳ သင္​့လား?contractionary policy ကို အသုံးျပဳသင္​့သလားဆံုးျဖတ္​ခ်က္​ၾကသည္​။ FOMC သည္​ Fed Funds rateအတိုးအ​ေလ်ွာ့ လုပ္​ၿပီးတိုင္​း ျပည္​စီးပြား​ေရးကို ​ေမာင္​းႏွင္​ သည္​။အစည္​း​ေ၀းၿပီးသည္​့​ေနာက္​ မွာ Minutesကို ထုတ္​ျပန္​ခဲ့ၿပီး ၎ အ​ေပၚမူ တည္​ၿပႇးီ ​ေဈးကြက္​က​ ရင္​းႏွီးျမႇဳပ္​ႏံွမႉ ့မ်ားကို ျပဳလုပ္​ၾကသည္​။

အကယ္​ ၍ Minutesမွ အတိုးႏႉန္​း အတြက္​Dovish အသံ ​ေပးပါက ​ေဒၚ လာ ကို အား​ေပ်ာ့ ​ေစႏိုင္​ၿပီး ​ေဒၚလာ​ေရာင္​းခ်သူမ်ား က ​ေဈးကြက္​မ်ားမွာ တိုးလာႏိူင္​ၿပီး ​ေဒၚလာ တန္​ဖိုး ထိုးက် ဆင္​းႏိူင္​​ေသာ​ေၾကာင္​့ ၎အခ်ိနိ၌ Fed အရာ ႐ွိမ်ားက လူ အားျဖင္​့ Hawkishအသံ ​ေပးၿပီး မူ ကို ထိန္​း၍ ​ေဒၚလာကို ပါထိန္​းထားၾကသည္​။ ထို႔​ေၾကာင္​့​ေဒၚလာ သည္​ အက်ကိုလည္​း ​ေဈးကြ က္​ အရ ​ေဇာက္​ထိုးက်သြားျခင္​းမ႐ွိ​ေအာင္​ ႏွင္​့ အတိုးႏႉနိး တိုးသည္​့ အခ်ိန္​မွာလည္​း ​ေဒၚလာတန္​ဖိုး အလြန္​အကြၽံ တက္​ လာႏိုင္​ ​ေခ် ႐ွိရာ၌ ​ေဒၚလာ အတက္​သည္​ အ​ေမရိကန္​ပို႔ကုန္​ လုပ္​ငန္​းမ်ား ကို ထိခိုက္​ ႏိူင္​ၿပီး တ႐ုတ္​ ကဲ့သို႔​ေသာျပည္​ပ လုပ္​ငန္​းမ်ား၏ ထုတ္​ကုန္​ မ်ားႏွင္​ ့ႏိႉင္​းယွဥ္​ ရာ ၌ ယွဥ္​ၿပိဳင္​မႉ ့အသာစီး မရ ႏိူင္​​ေသာ​ေၾကာင္​့ ​ေဒၚလာ အတက္​ကို Fedအရာ႐ွိမ်ား၏ Dovish Speechesမ်ားႏွင္​့ ထိန္​းထားသည္​့ အျပင္​ အစိုးရ ​ေက်ာ​ေထာက္​ ​ေနာက္​ခံ​ေပး ထားသည္​့ The Cartelမ်ားကိုလည္​း လို အပ္​သလို
ႀကိဳးကိုင္​ လႉ ပ္​႐ွား​ေစခဲ့သည္​။ တ​ေလာက ဗဟိုဘဏ္​ က၀ိ တစ္​ ဦး​ေျပာသလို ျမန္​မာက်ပ္​​ေငြ အတက္​ အက် သည္​ ​ေဈးကြ က္​ ၀ယ္​လိုအား၊ ​ေရာင္​းလိုအား အတိုင္​း သာ ႐ွိ မွာ ဘဲ ဟူ​ေသာ စကား သည္​ မွားသည္​။ မျပည္​့စုံ ဟု ဆိုရမည္​။ ​ေဈးကြက္​ အတိုင္​းသာထားပါက
ူလူဆိုးႀကီး ​ေဂ်ာ့႐ွ္​ ဆိုး​ေရာစ္​့ လို ​ေငြ​ေၾကးကစားသူမ်ား ႐ွိလာ ခဲ့ ပါက ဒုကၡ ​ေရာက္​သြားႏိူင္​သည္​။ BOE လို ဘဏ္​ မ်ိဳး​ေတာင္​ အလူး အလဲ ခံ ခဲ့ ရသလို ၁၉၉၇ခုန​စ္​ အာ႐ွ အၾကပ္​ အတည္​း တို႔ကိုနမူနာ ယူသင္​့ပါသည္​။ ျမန္​မာ ႏိူင္​ငံ​ေတာ္​ ဗဟိုဘဏ္​ အ​ေနျဖင္​့ လက္​ ႐ွိ အတိုး
ႏႉန္​း ျမင္​့ မားမႉ ့ နင္​့ ​ေငြ​ေၾကး​ေဖာင္​းပြ မႉ ့ ႏြား ႏွစ္​​ေကာင္​ကို ဘယ္​ ညာ မ်ွ တစြာ စနစ္​က်စြာ ႀကိဳးကိုင္​ၿပီးလိုရာခရီး ကို သြားႏိူင္​ဖို႔ ႀကိဳးတင္​ ​ေမာင္​းႏွင္​ သင္​့ပါ​ေၾကာင္​းႏွင္​့ လက္​ ႐ွိ လမ္​းက​ေတာ့ ရႊံ ၫြန္​ ထူထပ္​​ေသာလမ္​းသို႔ ​ေရာက္​ႏိူင္​ၿပီး ၎ႏြား ႏွစ္​ ​ေကာင္​ကလည္​း ႏြားသိုးႏြား႐ိုင္​းမ်ားျဖစ္​ၾက​ေသာ​ေၾကာင္​့ သတိ ထား ၀ိရိယ စိုက္​ၿပီး ဥာဏ္​ ႏွင္​့ ဆံုးျဖတ္​သင္​့ ပါ​ေၾကာင္​း ​ေ၀ဖန္​ ​ေရးသားလိုက္​ ရပါသည္​။

Ko Nay Nay

Unicode

နိူင်ငံတစ်နိူင်ငံ၏ နိူင်ငံရေးနှင့် စီးပွားရေးသည် လူတစ်ယောက်၏ “ရုပ်´´နှင့် “နာမ်´´လို ဒွန်တွဲစွာ တည်ရှိနေ ကြသည်၊၊ဘယ်ဟာက အရေးကြီးလည်းမေးပါက နှစ်ခု လုံးအရေးကြီးသည်ဟုဆိုရမည်။ ၎င်း နှစ်ခု မှ တစ်ခုစီ ကွဲ သွား ကွာသွား ခဲ့ပါက အိုးစားကွဲ မည်ဖြစ်သည်။
မျက်မှောက်ခေတ် ဖွံ့ဖြိုးပြီးနိူင်ငံ အများစုသည် နိူင်ငံရေး စနစ် ကို စီးပွားရေးတိုးတက် ကြီးထွားမှူ့အပေါ်၌ အခြေ စိုက်ထားကြသည်ကများသည်။ တရုတ် နိူင်ငံ၊ ရုရှားနိူင်ငံ တို့နှင့် ဂျပန် နိူင်ငံ တို့ ၏ စီးပွားရေး တိုးတက်မှူ့အခြေနေ မှ နိူင်ငံရေး စနစ်ကောင်းများကို ဖန်တီးနိူင်ကြပြီး ကမ္ဘာ့ဇာတ်ခုံပေါ်၌လည်း အမေရိကန် နိူင်ငံကို ပခုံးချင်းယှဉ် နိူင် အဆင့် အထိ ရှိလာကြသည်။ ထို့ကြောင့် စီးပွားရေး တိုးတက်မှူ့ရှိမှ နိူင်ငံရေးစနစ် ခိုင်မာ တောင့်တင်းမှူ့ရှိ နိူင်သည်ကို မီးမောင်းထိုးပြခြင်းဖြစ်သည်။ စီးပွားရေးတိုး တက် ဖွံ့ဖြိုးဖို့ ဆိုသည်မှာလည်း ဗဟိုဘဏ် များ၏ ငွေကြေးပေါ်လစီ သည် အဓိက ကျနေသည်။အမေရိကန် Fedဗဟိုဘဏ် သည် ၂၀၀၈ခုနှစ် ဘဏ္ဍာရေးပျက်ကပ်
တုန်းက ငွေကြေးပေါ်လစီ အပြောင်းအလဲ လုပ်ခဲ့၍သာ ယနေ့ အထိ စီးပွားရေးကြံ့ခိုင်မှူ့ရှိနေခြင်းဖြစ်သည်။ ၎င်းအချိန်မှ စပြီး Fed ဗဟိုဘဏ် သည် အတိုးနှူန်းကို သုည အဆင့်အထိ လျှော့ချ ထားခဲ့ပြီးနှိူးဆွ စီးပွားရေး ပေါ်လစီ ကို ကျင့် သုံးခဲ့ပြီး၂၀၁၅ခုနှစ် ဒီဇင်ဘာလ အထိ ဗဟိုဘဏ် အတိုးနှူန်းကို မတိုးဘဲ သုည အဆင့်၌သာ ထားရှိခဲ့ပြီးတိုင်းပြည် စီးပွားရေး နားလန်ထူအောင် ကြိုးစားခဲ့သည်။

ဗဟိုဘဏ်သည် တိုင်းပြည် ၏ ဘဏ်လုပ်ငန်းဆိုင်ရာကိစ္စရပ်များဖြစ်ကြသည့် ငွေစက္ကူထုတ်ဝေခြင်း၊ ချေးငွေလုပ်ငန်းများကို စီမံ ထိန်းချုပ်ကိုင်တွယ်ခြင်း လည်ပတ်ငွေကြေးပမာဏ ကို လိုအပ်သလို အတိုး အလျှော့ လုပ်ခြင်းတို့အပြင် အတိုးနှူန်းနှင့်ငွေကြေး ဖောင်းပွခြင်းတို့ကို သမမျှတအောင် ထိန်းညှိစီမံ ဆောင်ရွက် ပေးရသည်။ “ဘဏ်များ၏ နောက်ဆုံး အားထားရာ ချေးငှါးသူ´´(Lender of Last Resort)
အဖြစ်လည်းတာဝန်ယူပေးရသည်။ အချို့သောဗဟိုဘဏ် တို့ကို အစိုးရ မှ တိုက်ရိုတ်ချုပ်ကိုင် ပြီးတချို့ကတော့ ကိုယိပိုင် ပေါ်လစီများဖြင့် ရပ်တည်ဆောင်ရွက်ကြသည်။

ပြည်ထောင်စုမြန်မာနိူင်ငံတော်ဘဏ် ကို ၁၉၄၇ခုနှစ် ပြည်ထောင်စုမြန်မာနိူင်ငံတော် ဘဏ်အက်ဥပဒေအရ ၁၉၄၈ ခုနှစ် ဖေဖော်ဝါရီ လ ၄ရက်နေ့ ၌ ခွင့်ပြုမတည်ငွေ ကျပ်သန်း ၄၀ဖြင့် တည်ထောင်ခဲ့သညိ။ ၎င်းအချိန်၌ ဗဟိုဘဏ်၏ လုပ်ပိုင်ခွင့်အာဏာအတွက် အိန္ဒိယ ရီဇတ်ဘဏ်မှ ဘဏ် လုပ်ငန်းများကို တာဝန်ခွဲေ၀ ယူခဲ့ပြီး ၁၉၅၂ခုနှစ် ဇူလှိူင်လ ရောက်မှသာ ပြည်ထောင်စုမြန်မာနိူင်ငံတော် ဘဏ် ဥပဒေ ပြဌာန်းပြီးဗဟိုဘဏ် ၏ လုပ်ငန်းစဉ်အားလုံးကို လွှဲယူ ဆောင်ရွက်ခွင့်ရရှိခဲ့သည်။ ၎င်းဥပဒေအရ မြန်မာအစိုးရ ငွေကြေးအုပ်ချုပ်မှူ့ အဖွဲ့ထံကနေ ငွေကြေးစက္ကူများကို ရိုတ်နှိပ်ထုတ်ဝေခွင့် အာဏာကို ပြည်ထောင်စုမြန်မာ နိူင်ငံတော်ဘဏ်က လွှဲပြောင်းယူခဲ့သည်။ ၁၉၅၃ခုနှစ်လောက်ကမြန်မာကျပ်ငွေ တန်ဖိုးကို ဒေါ်လာ နှင့် နှိူင်းယှဉ်ရာ၌ ၁ဒေါ်လာ=၄ကျပ် လောက်သာရှိခဲ့သည်။ ၁၉၆၂ခုနှစ်မှ ၁၉၈၈ခုနှစ် ကာလအတွင်းမှာ မြန်မာ့ငွေကြေးစနစ်သည်ဆိုရှယ်လစ်ခေတ် ငွေကြေးစနစ်ဟူ၍ထင်ခြားသည်။ သို့သော် နိူင်ငံတော်အစိုးရသည် ၁၉၆၄ခုနှစိ၌တစ်ကြိမ် ၁၉၈၅ခုနှစိ၌တစ်ကြိမ်၊ပြည်တွင်းလည်ပတ်သုံးစွဲငွေစက္ကူ အချိူ့ကို တရားဝင်အဖြစ်မှရပ်စဲ မှူ့ ပြုလုပ်ခဲ့သည်။ ၁၉၈၇ခုနှစ်စက်တင်ဘာ၅ရက်နေ့က ၂၅ကျပ်တန်၊ ၃၅ကျပ်တန်နှင့်၇၅ကျပ်တန်တို့ကို လည်ပတ်သုံးစွဲခြင်းမှ ရက် ဆိုင်းပြီး အစားပြန်လျော်ပေးခြင်း ၊လဲလှယ်ပေးခြင်း မျိူးလည်းမပြုလုပ်ဘဲ ရပ်ဆိုင်းခြင်းကြောင့်တိုင်းပြည်ငွေကြေး၇၀%လောက်သည် တန်ဖိုးမဲ့ဖြစ်သွားခဲ့ရသည်။ ၎င်းအချိန်ကာလ တုန်းက ဘဏ္ဍာရေးဝန်ကြီးသူရ ဦးထွန်းတင် လက် ထက် ၌ ဖြစ်ပါသည်။၎င်း စနစ် မှားကြောင့်
တိုင်းပြည်စီးပွားရေးကို များစွာ ထိခိုက်စေခဲ့ပါသည်။

၁၉၈၈ခုနှစ်နောက်ပိုင်းမှစပြီးမြန်မာ့စီးပွားရေးနစ်ကို စီမံကိန်း စနစ်မှ ဈေးကွက်စီးပွားရေးစနစ်သို့ ပြောင်းလဲခဲ့သည်။၎င်းမှ မျက်မှောတ် ခေတ်အထိ ငွေကြေး စနစ်သည် ဈေးကွက်စီးပွားရေးစနစ် အပေါ်ရှင်သန်နေပါသည်။ သို့သော် ငွေကြေးပေါ်လစီ စနစ် မှား
ယွင်းခဲ့သည် ဆို ၇မလား၊ မှားနေသည်ဘဲ ဆိုရမလားတော့ မသိ။လက်ရှိ ငွေကြေးဖောင်းပွမှူ့နှူနိးက ၇.၉၈% အထိရှိနေသည်။တရုတ်နိူင်ငံက ၁.၇%၊ ယူရိုဧရိယာက ၁.၅%၊အိန္ဒိယ က ၄.ဂ%၊ အင်ဒိုနီးရှားက ၃.၆%၊ ဂျပန်က ဝ.၆%၊စသဖြင့် ရှိကြပြီး မြန်မာနိုင်ငံကငွေကြေး ဖောင်းပွ မှူ့နှူနိး မြင်မားနေသည်။အမေရိကန်Fedဗဟိုဘဏ်၊ BOJ၊ ECB တို့သည် ငွေကြေးဖောင့်းပွ မှူ့နှူန်းကို 2% targetထားကြသည်။ ၎င်း အထက် ရောက် မှာစိုးလို့ ၎င်း နား နီးလာပါက ဗဟိုဘဏ်အတိုးနှူန်းကို တိုးဖို့ ဟန်ပြင်နေကြပြီဖြစ်သည်။
ကမ္ဘာ့ ဘဏ်ကတောင် မြန်မာ့ ငွေကြေးဖောင်းပွ မှူ့ကို စိုးရိမ်စရာ ပြဿနာဟု ပင် သတိပေးထားခဲ့သည်။ မြန်မာနိူင်ငံ၏ ဗဟိုဘဏ်အတိုးနူန်းသည် ၁၃% အထိ ရှိလေသညိ။ ၎င်းအတိုးနှူန်းသည် ဖွံ့ ဖြိုးပြီးနိူင်ငံများနှင့် နှိူင်းယှဉ်ပါက လွန်စာမြင့်မားနေသလို ဖွံ့ဖြိုးဆဲ
နိူင်ငံ များ အချင်းချင်းနှင့် နှိူင်းယှဉ်သည့်တိုင် မြင့်မားလျက် ရှိနေပါသည်။ ၁၃ကြိမ်မြောက်ကျင်းပခဲ့ပြီးသည့်မြန်မာနိုင်ငံ ကုန်သည် နှင့်စက်မှူ့လုပ်ငန်းရှင်များအသင်းတွေ့ ဆုံဆွေးနွေးပွဲ၌ ဗဟိုဘဏ် ချေးငွေ အတိုးနှူန်း လျှော့ချ ဖို့ တောင်းဆို ခဲ့သည်။

သို့သော် ဗဟိုဘဏ် အတိုးနှူန်းလျှော့ချ ပါက Inflation(ငွေကြေးဖောင်းပွ မှူ့)သည်စိုးရိမ်ရေ မှတ် ထက်တောင် ကျော် လွန်သွားနိူင်
သည်။ လက်ရှိတောင် ၇.၈၉%ဆိုတော့ Inflationမှ Hyperinflationသို့ ရောက် ရှိသွားပါက မတွေးရဲစရာ အနေထားသို့ ရောက်ရှိသွားနိူင်သည်။၁၉၂၃ခုနှစ် Hyperinflation သည် ဂျာမဏီနိူင်ငံ ကို ဒုက္ခ များစွာရောက်စေခဲ့သည်။ ၁၉၂၃ခုနှစ် ဆောင်းရာသီ တုန်းက
ပေါင်မုနိ့ တစ်လုံး တန်ဖိုးသည် ၂၀၀,၀၀၀,၀၀၀,၀၀၀ marks ငွေ ပေးခဲ့ရသည်။ အလုပ်သမားတို့၏ လုပ်ခ လစာများသည်လည်း အချိန်နှင့်မျှ တန်ဖိုးလျော့နေခဲ့သည်။ ဘဏ်ထဲ၌ အပ်နှံထားကြသည့် အပ်နှံငွေများသည်လည်းတန်ဖိုး မဲ့ အခြေ နေသို့ ရောက်ရှိခဲ့ကြသည်။
ထို့ကြောင့်ဗဟိုဘဏ်ကဝိ များတို့ အနေဖြင့် သတိ ထား သုံးသပ်စိစစ်ပြီးမှ ငွေကြေးပေါ်လစီ ကို ချမှတ်သင့့်ပါသည်။ အမေရိကန် နိုင်ငံ မှာတော့ ပြည် နယ် ၁၂ခုမှာ ဗဟိုဘဏ် ဥက္ကဌ တစ် ဦးစီ ထားရှိပြီးFOMC အစည်း ဝေးများမှာ ၎င်း တို့ ၏ အကြံပြုချက်များ၊ မဲခွဲ အတည်ပြု
ချက်များဖြင့် ငွေကြေးပေါ်လစီ ကို အထူးဂရုစိုက်၍ ထိန်းချုပ်စီ မံ ကြသည်။ FOMCအစည်းဝေးကို ၁နှစ်မှာ ၈ကြိမ် ပုံ မှန် ပြုလုပ်ကြသည်။ အစည်းဝေးတစ်ခုစီ၌ စီးပွားရေးအခြေနေ ကို သုံးသပ်မှူ့များပြုလုပ်ဆွေးနွေးကြပြီး၎င်း ကို အခြေ ခံ၍ expansionary policy ကို အသုံးပြု သင့်လား?contractionary policy ကို အသုံးပြုသင့်သလားဆုံးဖြတ်ချက်ကြသည်။ FOMC သည် Fed Funds rateအတိုးအလျှော့ လုပ်ပြီးတိုင်း ပြည်စီးပွားရေးကို မောင်းနှင် သည်။အစည်းဝေးပြီးသည့်နောက် မှာ Minutesကို ထုတ်ပြန်ခဲ့ပြီး ၎င်း အပေါ်မူ တည်ပြှးီ ဈေးကွက်က ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နံှမှူ့များကို ပြုလုပ်ကြသည်။

အကယ် ၍ Minutesမှ အတိုးနှူန်း အတွက်Dovish အသံ ပေးပါက ဒေါ် လာ ကို အားပျော့ စေနိုင်ပြီး ဒေါ်လာရောင်းချသူများ က ဈေးကွက်များမှာ တိုးလာနိူင်ပြီး ဒေါ်လာ တန်ဖိုး ထိုးကျ ဆင်းနိူင်သောကြောင့် ၎င်းအချိနိ၌ Fed အရာ ရှိများက လူ အားဖြင့် Hawkishအသံ ပေးပြီး မူ ကို ထိန်း၍ ဒေါ်လာကို ပါထိန်းထားကြသည်။ ထို့ကြောင့်ဒေါ်လာ သည် အကျကိုလည်း ဈေးကွ က် အရ ဇောက်ထိုးကျသွားခြင်းမရှိအောင် နှင့် အတိုးနှူနိး တိုးသည့် အချိန်မှာလည်း ဒေါ်လာတန်ဖိုး အလွန်အကျွံ တက် လာနိုင် ချေ ရှိရာ၌ ဒေါ်လာ အတက်သည် အမေရိကန်ပို့ကုန် လုပ်ငန်းများ ကို ထိခိုက် နိူင်ပြီး တရုတ် ကဲ့သို့သောပြည်ပ လုပ်ငန်းများ၏ ထုတ်ကုန် များနှင့်နှိူင်းယှဉ် ရာ ၌ ယှဉ်ပြိုင်မှူ့အသာစီး မရ နိူင်သောကြောင့် ဒေါ်လာ အတက်ကို Fedအရာရှိများ၏ Dovish Speechesများနှင့် ထိန်းထားသည့် အပြင် အစိုးရ ကျောထောက် နောက်ခံပေး ထားသည့် The Cartelများကိုလည်း လို အပ်သလို
ကြိုးကိုင် လှူ ပ်ရှားစေခဲ့သည်။ တလောက ဗဟိုဘဏ် ကဝိ တစ် ဦးပြောသလို မြန်မာကျပ်ငွေ အတက် အကျ သည် ဈေးကွ က် ဝယ်လိုအား၊ ရောင်းလိုအား အတိုင်း သာ ရှိ မှာ ဘဲ ဟူသော စကား သည် မှားသည်။ မပြည့်စုံ ဟု ဆိုရမည်။ ဈေးကွက် အတိုင်းသာထားပါက
ူလူဆိုးကြီး ဂျော့ရှ် ဆိုးရောစ့် လို ငွေကြေးကစားသူများ ရှိလာ ခဲ့ ပါက ဒုက္ခ ရောက်သွားနိူင်သည်။ BOE လို ဘဏ် မျိုးတောင် အလူး အလဲ ခံ ခဲ့ ရသလို ၁၉၉၇ခုနစ် အာရှ အကြပ် အတည်း တို့ကိုနမူနာ ယူသင့်ပါသည်။ မြန်မာ နိူင်ငံတော် ဗဟိုဘဏ် အနေဖြင့် လက် ရှိ အတိုး
နှူန်း မြင့် မားမှူ့ နင့် ငွေကြေးဖောင်းပွ မှူ့ နွား နှစ်ကောင်ကို ဘယ် ညာ မျှ တစွာ စနစ်ကျစွာ ကြိုးကိုင်ပြီးလိုရာခရီး ကို သွားနိူင်ဖို့ ကြိုးတင် မောင်းနှင် သင့်ပါကြောင်းနှင့် လက် ရှိ လမ်းကတော့ ရွှံ ညွန် ထူထပ်သောလမ်းသို့ ရောက်နိူင်ပြီး ၎င်းနွား နှစ် ကောင်ကလည်း နွားသိုးနွားရိုင်းများဖြစ်ကြသောကြောင့် သတိ ထား ဝိရိယ စိုက်ပြီး ဉာဏ် နှင့် ဆုံးဖြတ်သင့် ပါကြောင်း ဝေဖန် ရေးသားလိုက် ရပါသည်။

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